{"id":698,"date":"2018-09-03T18:00:12","date_gmt":"2018-09-03T15:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/?p=698"},"modified":"2023-01-17T17:34:55","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T14:34:55","slug":"guncel-kriz-uzerine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2018\/09\/03\/guncel-kriz-uzerine\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcncel kriz \u00fczerine…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cemal Do\u011fan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ba\u015fta TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetmesi olmak \u00fczere ekonomideki son geli\u015fmeler, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, onun etraf\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f olan politik g\u00fc\u00e7ler ve burjuva-kapitalist kesimler taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini engellemeye, \u00fclkeyi b\u00f6l\u00fcp par\u00e7alamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik sava\u015fla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00fczerinden de t\u00fcm halka \u00fclkeyi ve ekonomisini korumak, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 p\u00fcsk\u00fcrtmek i\u00e7in \u201creis<\/em>\u201d ve h\u00fck\u00fcmeti etraf\u0131nda birle\u015fme ve her t\u00fcrden fedakarl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131r olma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yorlar. Burjuva-liberal kesimlerin de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015f bir \u00e7evre ise, TL\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve ekonomideki olumsuz geli\u015fmelerle krize do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleni\u015fi Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin izledi\u011fi para ve ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra izlenen i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f politika ve yap\u0131lan tercihlerle a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yorlar. Halk\u0131n geli\u015fmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olan \u00f6fke ve yeni aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131, bu zemin ve hedefle, y\u00f6netim bi\u00e7imi ve y\u00f6neten g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ekonomi politika de\u011fi\u015fiklikleriyle \u00a0 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya, yedekleyerek d\u00fczenin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7ine hapsetmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n

Aralar\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar olmakla birlikte bu \u00e7evreler, ekonomideki geli\u015fmeleri, genel olarak kapitalizm ve sermayenin egemenli\u011finden, \u00f6zel olarak da ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kapitalist ekonominin geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecinden soyutlayarak ele al\u0131yor ve bu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klamaya y\u00f6neliyorlar. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerileri de bu temelde \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz d\u00f6nemde, ekonomideki geli\u015fmelerin kaynaklar\u0131 ve nedenlerine ili\u015fkin somut ve canl\u0131 olgular ve ger\u00e7eklerden hareket eden sistemli bir propaganda-ayd\u0131nlatma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmek ve bunu i\u015f\u00e7i ve emek\u00e7ilerin talepleri do\u011frultusunda yap\u0131lan ajitasyon \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla birle\u015ftirmek, sadece i\u015f\u00e7i ve emek\u00e7ilerin bilincini ilerletmek ve kendili\u011finden hareketin dar s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n a\u015fmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil, acil talepleri i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fctecekleri m\u00fccadelenin geli\u015fmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle belirtmek gerekir ki, TL\u2019nin sadece dolar de\u011fil Euro gibi di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc paralar ve alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u00fclkeye kar\u015f\u0131 bir ekonomik sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc son d\u00f6neme \u00f6zg\u00fc bir olay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, genel olarak ekonominin, \u00f6zel olarak da sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bir krize yol a\u00e7acak d\u00fczeyde d\u00fc\u015fmesi, TL\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131na u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131 ile ba\u015flamad\u0131.<\/p>\n

2008-2009 krizinin ve bu krizden \u00f6nce ABD ekonomisinde ba\u015flayan durgunlu\u011fun ba\u015fta finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olmak \u00fczere ekonominin 1929 benzeri bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcnt\u00fcye yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in, ABD y\u00f6netim \u00e7evreleri ve FED, piyasaya milyarlarca dolar s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeye de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda 500, kriz \u00f6ncesinde 900 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden bir ons alt\u0131n, 2011 A\u011fustosunda en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015farak 1800 dolar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Oysa 2008-2009 krizi ve hemen sonras\u0131nda bir ons alt\u0131n\u0131n 1250 dolara y\u00fckselmesi, dolar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 e\u015f-de\u011fer para birimi i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmesi ve ABD finans oligar\u015fisinin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya hakimiyeti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik e\u015fik olarak var say\u0131l\u0131yordu. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu e\u015fik a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Sonra ABD finans oligar\u015fisi ve siyasal temsilcileri, ABD ve d\u00fcnya kapitalist ekonomisinin toparlanmas\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, zay\u0131flayan ve uluslararas\u0131 e\u015f-de\u011fer para birimi olarak durumu sars\u0131lmaya ba\u015flayan dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nlemler almaya ve bunun bir unsuru olarak faizleri yeni ekonomik sars\u0131nt\u0131lara yol a\u00e7mayacak bi\u00e7imde ad\u0131m ad\u0131m y\u00fckseltmeye y\u00f6neldi. Ve bir ons alt\u0131n 1800 dolardan 1200 dolara kadar geriledi.<\/p>\n

FED\u2019in 2015 sonlar\u0131ndan itibaren ABD ekonomisinin geli\u015fme seyrini g\u00f6zeterek faizleri y\u00fckseltmesi, Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi ve ABD\u2019nin izledi\u011fi ekonomi-politikadaki di\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerini ve en ba\u015fta da d\u0131\u015f ticareti ve \u00f6demeler dengesi b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131klar veren, bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ancak (bor\u00e7lanma, portf\u00f6y ve do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m bi\u00e7iminde) yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi ile kapatabilen T\u00fcrkiye gibi ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkeleri etkiledi. Bundan b\u00f6yle yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan istikrars\u0131z bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 geli\u015firken, sermaye giri\u015flerinin maliyeti de giderek y\u00fckseldi. Uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131 daral\u0131r, y\u00fcksek faizlerle k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma artar, borsadaki spek\u00fclatif sermaye hareketleri istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da k\u00f6r\u00fckleyecek bi\u00e7imde geli\u015firken; d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin zay\u0131flamaya, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131racak bi\u00e7imde dalgalanmaya, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmeye ve faizlerin y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece girildi.<\/p>\n

FED\u2019in hen\u00fcz faizleri y\u00fckseltmeye ba\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2014 ve 2015 y\u0131llar\u0131nda, d\u00fcnya sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ticaret hacminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 durgunluk denebilecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede seyrediyordu. Bu d\u00f6nemde, kapitalist d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin geli\u015fme seyrine de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ba\u015fta sanayi olmak \u00fczere T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve yeni bir krizin unsurlar\u0131 giderek geli\u015ferek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyordu. Kredi taksitlerini \u00f6deyemeyen ve iflas ederek kapanan ya da iflas\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine gelen \u015firket ve i\u015fletme say\u0131s\u0131 h\u0131zla art\u0131yor, i\u015ften atmalar yayg\u0131nla\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, FED hen\u00fcz faizleri y\u00fckseltmeden \u00f6nce ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve devam ediyordu.<\/p>\n

FED\u2019in faizleri kademeli bir bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltti\u011fi ve bir ons alt\u0131n\u0131n 1200 dolara geriledi\u011fi bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de TL\u2019yi zay\u0131flatan bir para ve mali politikas\u0131 izlendi. Erdo\u011fan ve AKP etraf\u0131nda birle\u015fmi\u015f olan tekelci kli\u011fin ba\u015fl\u0131ca \u00f6nceli\u011fi, \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin iplerini ellerinde tutmak, tek adam tek parti y\u00f6netimini Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc Hal ko\u015fullar\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak bir referandumla halka onaylatmak ve ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imleri kazanmakt\u0131. B\u00fct\u00fcn veriler referandum ve se\u00e7imlerin b\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu, kriz ko\u015fullar\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak bir referandum ve se\u00e7imlerden Erdo\u011fan ve partisinin kazan\u0131mla \u00e7\u0131kamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu. Bu nedenle onlar, bir yandan fetih\u00e7i bir s\u00f6ylem e\u015fli\u011finde Suriye\u2019ye m\u00fcdahale eder ve \u015fovenizmi k\u00f6r\u00fcklerken, di\u011fer yandan da, uzun vadeli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemsemeden, ekonominin ge\u00e7ici de olsa canlanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak \u00f6nlemelerin al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun i\u00e7in devletin t\u00fcm kaynaklar\u0131 ve olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n en etkin bir bi\u00e7imde kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 merkezine alan bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 izlediler.<\/p>\n

Bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in de olsa iflaslar\u0131 erteleyecek, i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 canland\u0131racak, kredileri geni\u015fletecek paketler art arda a\u00e7\u0131klanarak uyguland\u0131. Anayasa referandumu ve se\u00e7imler s\u00fcrecinde, ekonomiye bir\u00e7ok bak\u0131mdan 2008-2009 krizi d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131lanlar\u0131 da a\u015fan devlet m\u00fcdahaleleri yap\u0131ld\u0131. Kamu Garanti Fonu\u2019ndan \u015firketlere a\u00e7\u0131lan krediler 250 milyar TL\u2019yi buldu. Kredi piyasas\u0131 %22 geni\u015flerken; KOB\u0130 kredileri %20, kurumsal krediler %28, t\u00fcketici kredileri %15 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc, kredi kartlar\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131 %6,6 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131. T\u00fcketimi artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00d6TV ve KDV\u2019de indirimler yap\u0131ld\u0131. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretimin en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ek \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nd\u0131. \u015eirketlerin sigorta prim ve vergi bor\u00e7lar\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131larak ertelendi. \u0130stihdam deste\u011fi ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda \u00fccretler ve sigorta primlerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 devlet ve ba\u011fl\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n kaynaklar\u0131ndan \u00f6dendi.<\/p>\n

Art arda uygulanan paketlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ambargoyu tedricen kald\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f durdu ve ekonomi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir canlanma s\u00fcrecine girdi.\u0130\u00e7 pazar canlan\u0131r, ihracat artarken, kapanan ya da iflas eden i\u015fletme say\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7ek oran\u0131 son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine geriledi.Ancak ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in uygulanan paketler ve al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine, enflasyonun ve faizlerin artmas\u0131na, bankalar ve kredi veren di\u011fer kurulu\u015flar\u0131n mali yap\u0131 ve dengelerinin bozulmas\u0131na ve buradan TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ivme kazanmas\u0131na, mali bir krizin unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmesine, \u00fclkeyi y\u00f6neten s\u0131n\u0131f ve temsilcilerinin bir kriz durumunda kullanabilecekleri i\u00e7 kaynak ve olanaklar\u0131n alabildi\u011fine daralmas\u0131na vb. de yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa s\u00fcreli canlanma s\u00fcrecinde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile birlikte d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ve sadece ekonominin \u00e7arklar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in \u00fclkeye girmesi gereken y\u0131ll\u0131k yabanc\u0131 sermaye miktar\u0131 50 milyar dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131. Toplam d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar GSMH\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farken, her y\u0131l \u00f6denmesi gereken d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri de y\u00fckseldi. Temmuz ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda \u00e7evrilmesi gereken d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131 180 milyar dolar. Ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonominin \u00e7arklar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6nebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00fclkeye girmesi gereken yabanc\u0131 sermaye miktar\u0131 durmadan artarken, T\u00fcrkiye daha y\u00fcksek faizler \u00f6deyerek bor\u00e7 bulabiliyor. \u00dclkenin toplam \u00fcretiminin, k\u00e2r transferleriyle d\u0131\u015f ve i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeleri i\u00e7in ayr\u0131lan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc giderek art\u0131yor. Mali bir krizin unsurlar\u0131 bu bak\u0131mdan da geli\u015fmektedir.<\/p>\n

SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 VE DARALAN PAZARLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye sanayiden tar\u0131ma, finanstan ticarete t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlere yay\u0131larak krize do\u011fru ilerleyen bir s\u00fcrece girmi\u015f bulunuyor. T\u00fcrkiye, sadece paras\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybeden ve bir \u201cpara-d\u00f6viz krizi<\/em>\u201d ya\u015fayan, d\u00f6viz stoklar\u0131 eriyen, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131yla b\u00fct\u00e7e ve cari a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir noktaya gelen, mali krizin e\u015fi\u011findeki bir \u00fclke de\u011fil. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f pazar olanaklar\u0131 daralmaya ba\u015flayan bir \u00fclke.<\/p>\n

2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 2015 ve 2016 y\u0131llar\u0131nda da d\u00fc\u015fen toplam sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, 2016\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ba\u015flayan canlanma ile birlikte istikrars\u0131z bir bi\u00e7imde de olsa y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak t\u00fcm veriler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2016\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde artmas\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle \u00fclkenin t\u00fcm kaynak ve olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 f\u00fctursuzca kullanan Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 paketlerle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak, bu istikrars\u0131z ve dalgal\u0131 canlanman\u0131n da sona erdi\u011fini ve sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmeye ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yerini daralman\u0131n almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re %1\u2019e geriledi. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte ise, bunu da s\u00fcrd\u00fcremedi ve sanayi \u00fcretimi \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcmek bir yana (%-0.7 oran\u0131nda) darald\u0131. Ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in de olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemek \u00fczere uygulanan ve \u00fclkenin mali bir krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini h\u0131zland\u0131ran paketlere kar\u015f\u0131n, sanayi \u00fcretimi, Ocak ay\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n (%-1) Mart ve Nisan aylar\u0131ndaki hafif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan, May\u0131s ve Haziran aylar\u0131nda, s\u0131ras\u0131yla %1.6 ve %2 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kapitalizmde \u00fcretimin pazarlardan h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve buradan krizin de temelini olu\u015fturan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretimin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131; ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz alarak \u00f6nce stoklar\u0131n artmas\u0131na, \u00fcretimin kesintiye u\u011frayarak s\u00fcrmesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine, kapanan, \u00fcretime ge\u00e7ici ya da uzun s\u00fcre ara veren i\u015fletmelerin artmas\u0131na ve kapitalist i\u015fletmeler aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olurken, i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131, ger\u00e7ek \u00fccretlerin ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn gerilemesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 pazar\u0131n\u0131n da daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de olan da bu. \u0130\u00e7 pazardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tam olarak ifade etmeyen ancak genel e\u011filimi yans\u0131tmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan \u201cperakende sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksi<\/em>\u201d ve sanayi alt sekt\u00f6rlerine ili\u015fkin sat\u0131\u015f verilerine g\u00f6re, i\u00e7pazar da, b\u00fcy\u00fcmek bir yana k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmektedir. Enflasyon %16\u2019ya ula\u015f\u0131rken \u00fccretlerin ve gelirlerin ayn\u0131 oranda artmamas\u0131, n\u00fcfusun ezici \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturan i\u015f\u00e7i ve emek\u00e7ilerin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7makta ve verili ko\u015fullarda i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 daraltan etkenlerden biri olmaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u015ften atmalar\u0131n artmas\u0131, i\u015fsizler ordusunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, iflaslar ve kapanan i\u015fletmelerin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 ile birlikte durum daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015facakt\u0131r. T\u00fcm bunlar, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretim temelinde geli\u015fen krizlerin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz ve onu daha da derinle\u015ftiren sonu\u00e7lar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Otomotiv, beyaz e\u015fya, kimya, ham \u00e7elik vb. sekt\u00f6rlerdeki geli\u015fmeler, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve i\u00e7 pazardaki daralman\u0131n Temmuzda da devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %2,8 daralan otomobil ve hafif ticari ara\u00e7 toplam pazar\u0131, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak-Haziran d\u00f6neminde, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %11,37 darald\u0131. \u0130hracat ise, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde adet olarak %3,67 azal\u0131rken, de\u011fer olarak %15 artt\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde toplam \u00fcretim ise %2,99 azald\u0131. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 Temmuz ay\u0131 otomobil ve hafif ticari ara\u00e7 pazar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re %35,92 oran\u0131nda azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 7 ay\u0131nda otomotiv pazar\u0131ndaki daralma; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %16\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l %2,7 olan d\u00fcnya otomotiv pazar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l %1,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, otomotiv ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz bir geli\u015fme olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde kimyasal madde \u00fcretimi %1,4 azal\u0131rken, bu sekt\u00f6rde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 da geriledi.<\/p>\n

Beyaz e\u015fyada sat\u0131\u015flar, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u0131\u015f pazarlarda %5,4 oran\u0131nda artarken, i\u00e7 pazarda %15 azald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015ferken, konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %5,4 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat malzemeleri \u00fcreten sanayide de b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerde de k\u0131smen oldu\u011fu gibi, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015flar ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00fcretim, paketlere ba\u011fl\u0131 bir seyir izledi.<\/p>\n

Veriler, tar\u0131mda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l gerileyece\u011fini; tah\u0131l dahil bir\u00e7ok tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcnde %1,3, sebze \u00fcretiminde %1,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, meyvelerde ise %6,3 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Sanayi \u00fcretimi ve i\u00e7 pazardaki daralma ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerdeki geli\u015fmeleri de etkileyecek ve bu sekt\u00f6rlerdeki kriz unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 da geli\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te krize gidi\u015fin tahrip edici sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rla\u015farak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. \u0130\u015ften atmalar yayg\u0131nla\u015f\u0131rken, i\u015fsizlik artacak, \u00fccretlerdeki a\u015f\u0131nma h\u0131zlanacak ve \u00fccretleri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede tutmak i\u00e7in bask\u0131lar yo\u011funla\u015facakt\u0131r. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta i\u015fletmelerde iflas ve kapanmalar artar, e\u011fitimden sa\u011fl\u0131\u011fa, kamu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 \u00fccretlerinden emekli maa\u015flar\u0131na kadar t\u00fcm sosyal harcamalar i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00e7eden ayr\u0131lan paylar k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131rken, emperyalist ve i\u015fbirlik\u00e7i tekellerin azami k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye alacak \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nacakt\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem, ya\u015fam ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen i\u015f\u00e7i ve emek\u00e7iler aras\u0131nda ho\u015fnutsuzluk, \u00f6fke ve m\u00fccadele e\u011filimlerinin de geli\u015fece\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kriz tehdidi, \u015fimdiden, AKP medyas\u0131na bile \u201cbu kadar olmaz<\/em>\u201d dedirterek zorunlu t\u00fcketim maddeleri dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn sekt\u00f6rlerde patlak veren zam furyas\u0131, enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda eriyen \u00fccretler, i\u015ften atmalar t\u00fcr\u00fcnden y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flayan krizin y\u00fcklerini kimin y\u00fcklenece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirerek derinle\u015fmektedir. S\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclen y\u0131\u011f\u0131nlar\u0131n ho\u015fnutsuzluk ve \u00f6fkelerinin tekellere ve egemenliklerine y\u00f6nelmesi, bu y\u0131\u011f\u0131nlar\u0131n birle\u015ftirilerek m\u00fccadeleye sevk edilmesi, devrimci bir tutumla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclecek propaganda, ajitasyon ve \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cemal Do\u011fan Ba\u015fta TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetmesi olmak \u00fczere ekonomideki son geli\u015fmeler, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, onun etraf\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f olan politik g\u00fc\u00e7ler ve burjuva-kapitalist kesimler taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini engellemeye, \u00fclkeyi b\u00f6l\u00fcp par\u00e7alamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik sava\u015fla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00fczerinden de t\u00fcm halka \u00fclkeyi ve ekonomisini korumak, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 p\u00fcsk\u00fcrtmek i\u00e7in \u201creis\u201d ve h\u00fck\u00fcmeti etraf\u0131nda birle\u015fme ve her t\u00fcrden […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[491,379,295],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-22-sayi-eylul-2018","category-iktisat","category-cemal-dogan"],"yoast_head":"\nG\u00fcncel kriz \u00fczerine...<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2018\/09\/03\/guncel-kriz-uzerine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"G\u00fcncel kriz \u00fczerine...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cemal Do\u011fan Ba\u015fta TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetmesi olmak \u00fczere ekonomideki son geli\u015fmeler, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, onun etraf\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f olan politik g\u00fc\u00e7ler ve burjuva-kapitalist kesimler taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini engellemeye, \u00fclkeyi b\u00f6l\u00fcp par\u00e7alamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik sava\u015fla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. 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