{"id":3904,"date":"2026-01-22T14:37:35","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T11:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/?p=3904"},"modified":"2026-01-22T14:41:34","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T11:41:34","slug":"zengezur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2026\/01\/22\/zengezur\/","title":{"rendered":"Transkafkasya\u2019da Emperyalist Hesaplar, Zengezur Koridoru ve TRIPP"},"content":{"rendered":"

Y\u00fccel \u00d6zdemir<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesi ko\u015fullar ve imk\u00e2nlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde emperyalist devletler aras\u0131nda yeniden payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Berlin Duvar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (SSCB) da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra emperyalist rekabetin ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 boyut de\u011fi\u015fik d\u00fczeylerde sertle\u015ferek devam ediyor. \u201cPayla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d bitece\u011fi tezinin bir safsatadan ibaret oldu\u011fu her ge\u00e7en y\u0131l daha da netle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n

Bat\u0131l\u0131 kapitalist-emperyalist devletlerin hedefindeki SSCB ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n 1990\u2019larda da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra, SSCB\u2019nin egemenlik alanlar\u0131n\u0131 korumada onun devam\u0131 olma iddias\u0131ndaki Rusya, \u00f6zellikle 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda Vladimir Putin d\u00f6neminin ba\u015flamas\u0131yla, bir taraftan Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hedefinde olmaya devam ederken di\u011fer taraftan SSCB\u2019nin etkisi alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeler ve \u00fclkeleri kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tutma \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7inde oldu, olmaya da devam ediyor. Denilebilir ki son 35 y\u0131lda, Bat\u0131l\u0131 emperyalist devletlerin aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkiler kendisini bariz \u015fekilde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda da Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ortak tutumlar\u0131 hep varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Zira, eskiden SSCB\u2019nin sonra Rusya\u2019n\u0131n etkisinde olan \u00fclke ve b\u00f6lgeleri NATO ve AB\u2019nin etkisi alt\u0131na alma, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli ortak stratejisi olmaya devam etti. Eskiden SSCB\u2019nin par\u00e7as\u0131 olan Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Avrupa\u2019daki cumhuriyetler, Belarus ve sallant\u0131da olan Moldovya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndakiler- NATO ve AB \u00fcyesi yap\u0131larak Rusya\u2019dan kopar\u0131ld\u0131. Sadece kopar\u0131lmakla da kal\u0131nmad\u0131, Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli mevziler haline getirildi. SSCB\u2019nin \u00f6nemli cumhuriyetlerinden biri olan Ukrayna \u00fczerinde ise payla\u015f\u0131m \u015eubat 2022\u2019den beri s\u0131cak sava\u015f olarak s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Sava\u015f\u0131n nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi bug\u00fcnden s\u00f6ylenebilir. Do\u011fusu \u00fczerinde ise egemenlik m\u00fccadelesi ise daha s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131dan ku\u015fat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli hamlelerinden birisi olan Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ele ge\u00e7irilmesi plan\u0131na Moskova\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015fla yan\u0131t vermesinin faturas\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131 ise hen\u00fcz tam kestirilemiyor. Bug\u00fcne kadar olanlara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Kremlin\u2019in Ukrayna hesab\u0131n\u0131n, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n lehine i\u015flemedi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Askeri ve ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00f6nemli bir \u00fclke olan Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n kaybedilmemesine harcarken, sava\u015f uzad\u0131k\u00e7a maliyeti de a\u011f\u0131rla\u015facak. Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131llara yay\u0131lan sava\u015f plan\u0131 gelinen a\u015famada \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 doldurdu. Gelinen a\u015famada ABD ve lider Trump, kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak tarzda sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor. Birlikte yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupal\u0131 ortaklar\u0131 ise buna pek istekli g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira, ABD\u2019nin liderli\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek bir \u201cbar\u0131\u015f\u201d uzun vadeli payla\u015f\u0131m planlar\u0131na engel te\u015fkil ediyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kazanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n kaybetmedi\u011fi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yorlar. ABD ise Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n toprak kayb\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren se\u00e7enekleri Rusya\u2019ya teklif ediyor. Bu nedenle ABD ile Avrupal\u0131 emperyalist devletler aras\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda \u00e7eli\u015fkiler her f\u0131rsatta kendisini a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa vuruyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya da f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 buldu\u011funda belli kazan\u0131mlarda sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmenin \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde. Zira sava\u015f uzad\u0131k\u00e7a Rusya\u2019n\u0131n belli alanlarda kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

2011\u2019den Aral\u0131k 2024\u2019e kadar Suriye\u2019de kendisine yak\u0131n rejimi ayakta tutmay\u0131 ba\u015faran Rusya, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n faturas\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle, Esad rejiminin d\u00fc\u015fmesine adeta vize vermek zorunda kald\u0131. Suriye sahas\u0131nda \u0130ran ve Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n etkisinin zamanla zay\u0131flamas\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 aktarmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyordu. Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya verdi\u011fi askeri deste\u011fin cephede Rusya\u2019y\u0131 yer yer zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda Suriye\u2019deki bu ek y\u00fck daha fazla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilecek durumda de\u011fildi. Bu zorunluluk nedeniyle Rusya uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r Suriye \u00fczerinden b\u00f6lgenin dizayn\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir akt\u00f6r olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yitirdi. Gelinen a\u015famada sahadan k\u0131smen \u00e7ekilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Askeri \u00fcsleri b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de sahada inisiyatifin as\u0131l olarak ABD\u2019ye ge\u00e7ti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n

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Transkafkasya\u2019da Rusya G\u00fc\u00e7 Kaybederken<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n faturalar\u0131ndan birisi de G\u00fcney Kafkasya ya da Transkafkasya olarak tan\u0131mlanan b\u00f6lgedeki eski Sovyet cumhuriyetleri G\u00fcrcistan, Ermenistan, Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Bat\u0131\u2019ya daha fazla yana\u015fmas\u0131 oldu. Bat\u0131dan Ukrayna, Finlandiya ve Balt\u0131k \u00fclkeleri \u00fczerinden ku\u015fat\u0131lan Rusya, ad\u0131m ad\u0131m g\u00fcneyden de ku\u015fatmayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da, her ne kadar iktidar Bat\u0131 ve Rusya aras\u0131nda gidip gelse de \u00fclkenin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc Bat\u0131\u2019ya \u00e7evirdi\u011fi belirginle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Bu kapsamda G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da Rusya ve AB-NATO yanl\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele, emperyalistlerin g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine paralel olarak devam edecek.<\/p>\n

Uzun s\u00fcre AB ve NATO yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iktidarda oldu\u011fu G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n sonbahar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan parlamento se\u00e7imlerini Rusya yanl\u0131lar\u0131 kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ekim 2025\u2019deki yerel se\u00e7imleri de Rusya yanl\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k arayla kazan\u0131nca, \u00fclke yeniden kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n uzun bir s\u00fcre daha Rusya ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131m sahas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya aleyhine Transkafkasya\u2019da en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler ise son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan cephesinde ya\u015fan\u0131yor. SSCB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra Karaba\u011f sorunu \u00fczerine birbirleriyle sava\u015flara giren, can kay\u0131plar\u0131 veren her iki \u00fclke, her sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck birader\u2019 durumundaki Rusya\u2019n\u0131n devreye girmesiyle ge\u00e7ici de olsa anla\u015fabiliyordu. Ancak zamanla Rusya her iki \u00fclke \u00fczerindeki siyasi, askeri, ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015famal\u0131 olarak yitirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Azerbaycan, uzun bir s\u00fcredir Rusya-Bat\u0131 ili\u015fkilerini bir denge \u00fczerinden g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Bat\u0131\u2019yla, \u00f6zellikle de onun Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u201cpis i\u015flerini\u201d yapan \u0130srail ile ili\u015fkilerini askeri ve ekonomik d\u00fczlemde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Ermenistan ise Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefiki olarak b\u00f6lgede hareket ediyordu. Ancak \u0130kinci Karaba\u011f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Azerbaycan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutum almamas\u0131, zaman\u0131nda m\u00fcdahalede bulunmamas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde so\u011fumaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu tutumunun arkas\u0131nda elbette Ermenistan\u2019da i\u015fba\u015f\u0131nda olan h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Bat\u0131l\u0131 emperyalist devletlerle girmi\u015f oldu\u011fu yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler yat\u0131yordu. Bu nedenle, eski SSCB cumhuriyetleri aras\u0131nda imzalanan Kolektif G\u00fcvenlik Anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (KGA\u00d6) anla\u015fmas\u0131 aktif olarak y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe konulmad\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ermenistan y\u00f6netimini cezaland\u0131rma amac\u0131yla izledi\u011fi bu tutum, daha sonra Bat\u0131\u2019ya yak\u0131nla\u015fmada kullan\u0131lan bir s\u00f6ylem haline getirildi.<\/p>\n

KGA\u00d6 \u00fcyeli\u011finin dondurulmas\u0131ndan sonra Ermenistan, Fransa, Hindistan ve \u00c7ek Cumhuriyeti\u2019nden askeri te\u00e7hizat sat\u0131n almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD askeri personelinin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018Eagle Partner\u2019 tatbikat\u0131 Temmuz 2024\u2019te ikinci kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi.[1]<\/a> ABD’nin Avrupa ve Afrika Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, tatbikat\u0131n ama\u00e7lar\u0131ndan birinin ortak bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 koruma misyonu i\u00e7in e\u011fitim vermek ve birbirlerinin ekipmanlar\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131mak oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

Azerbaycan, Eyl\u00fcl-Kas\u0131m 2020 tarihleri aras\u0131nda 44 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren \u0130kinci Karaba\u011f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 5 \u015fehir, 4 kasaba ve 286 k\u00f6y\u00fc topraklar\u0131na katt\u0131. 8 Kas\u0131m 2020’de Karaba\u011f’\u0131n sembol \u015fehri \u015eu\u015fa\u2019n\u0131n Azerbaycan taraf\u0131ndan ele ge\u00e7irilmesi Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n yenilgiyi kabul etmesine giden yolu da haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f oldu. Nitekim Azerbaycan, Ermenistan ve Rusya aras\u0131nda 10 Kas\u0131m 2020’de sava\u015f\u0131 bitiren \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bildiri imzaland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131smen seyirci kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015fta T\u00fcrkiye etkili bir rol \u00fcstlenirken, Azerbaycan\u2019a verdi\u011fi \u0130HA ve S\u0130HA\u2019lar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n seyrinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynad\u0131. 10 Kas\u0131m 2020\u2019deki anla\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen belli alanlardan \u00e7ekilmeyi kabul etmeyen Ermenistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 19 Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019de ayr\u0131 bir operasyon daha d\u00fczenlendi. 24 saat s\u00fcren operasyonda Karaba\u011f’daki Ermenistan silahl\u0131 birlikleri silahlar\u0131n\u0131 Azerbaycan ordusuna teslim etti. B\u00f6ylece, SSCB d\u00f6neminden itibaren Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak kabul edilen Karaba\u011f oblast\u0131 tamamen Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n egemenli\u011fi alt\u0131na girmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n Karaba\u011f sorununu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin deste\u011fiyle \u201challetmesi\u201d, Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n 2020\u2019de yap\u0131lan anla\u015fma ile Rusya\u2019ya verilen b\u00f6lgede \u201cbar\u0131\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda askeri birlikler bulundurma ve Zengezur koridoru dahil s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 kontrol etme yetkisini yok saymas\u0131 Erivan ile Moskova aras\u0131nda ili\u015fkilerde k\u0131r\u0131lmalara neden oldu.<\/p>\n

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Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n Eksen Kaymas\u0131: Rusya Yerine AB ve ABD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Halbuki Ermenistan bir nevi Rusya\u2019n\u0131n askeri korumas\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra Ermenistan, Tacikistan ile birlikte s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 Rus s\u0131n\u0131r birlikleri taraf\u0131ndan korunan iki \u00fclkeden biriydi. Tacikistan, buna Afganistan\u2019dan gelen tehditleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterirken Ermenistan, T\u00fcrkiye ile ya\u015fanan sorunlar nedeniyle \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na Rus askerlerinin yerle\u015ftirilmesini istemi\u015fti. Ermenistan-Azerbaycan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ise Ermeni ordu birlikleri taraf\u0131ndan korunmu\u015ftu. Rus s\u0131n\u0131r muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yakla\u015f\u0131k 3500 aile ferdi Ermenistan’da bulunuyordu. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k y\u0131llar\u0131nda Ermenistan Rus askeri \u00fcslerini kapatmad\u0131. Bir tek Erivan Havaalan\u0131ndaki Rus s\u0131n\u0131r muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 1 A\u011fustos 2024 geri \u00e7ekildi. Keza Rusya Ermenistan’\u0131n en \u00f6nemli silah tedarik\u00e7isi idi. Pazar pay\u0131 2010-2020 aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 94 idi. Buna ra\u011fmen Moskova m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan her yerde Azerbaycan ile Ermenistan aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131, a\u00e7\u0131ktan Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na almaya yana\u015fmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 analizlere g\u00f6re, Moskova-Erivan hatt\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerde en ciddi kopu\u015f 2018\u2019den sonra ba\u015flad\u0131.[2]<\/a> 2018 bahar\u0131nda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Serj Sarkisyan\u2019\u0131n, iki d\u00f6nemlik g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi dolduktan sonra bile iktidarda kalabilmek i\u00e7in yapmak istedi\u011fi anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine halk tepki g\u00f6sterdi. Ermenistan\u2019da daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sokak hareketi, protestolar ya\u015fand\u0131.
\n\u0130lk olarak 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturan, Rusya\u2019ya mesafeli, Sarkisyan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 muhalefeti birle\u015ftiren Nikol Pa\u015finyan daha sonra giderek kal\u0131c\u0131 bir siyasi akt\u00f6r haline geldi. 2020\u2019de Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n Karaba\u011f\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pa\u015finyan defalarca Putin’i Bak\u00fc \u00fczerinde etkili olmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak bekledi\u011fi yan\u0131t\u0131 alamad\u0131. Moskova\u2019ya g\u00f6re ihtilafl\u0131 b\u00f6lge, yani Karaba\u011f, Ermenistan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle KGA\u00d6\u2019n\u00fcn yetki alan\u0131na girmiyordu. Ayn\u0131 analize g\u00f6re, Moskova ile Erivan aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n as\u0131l nedeni Karaba\u011f meselesinden ziyade Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n Ermenistan\u2019la olan ve uluslararas\u0131 alanda tan\u0131nan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlara Moskova’n\u0131n tepki vermemesiydi. Bak\u00fc, 2021 ve 2022 y\u0131llar\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli Ermenistan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndan i\u00e7eriye girerek toprak kazan\u0131yordu.[3]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Moskova\u2019dan uzakla\u015fma iste\u011fi Bat\u0131\u2019ya yana\u015fma konusundaki as\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 ise Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ilk kez tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlara bir AB g\u00f6zlem misyonu davet etti\u011fi Ekim 2022\u2019de Prag\u2019da yap\u0131lan Avrupa Siyasi Toplulu\u011fu Zirvesi\u2019nde oldu. Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019yla me\u015fgul durumdaki Moskova, d\u00f6n\u00fcp b\u00f6lgeyle ilgilenmeyince T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de deste\u011fini alan Azerbaycan, b\u00f6lgedeki etkisini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde Rusya, Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle hem T\u00fcrkiye hem de Azerbaycan\u2019a bir y\u00f6n\u00fcyle daha fazla ihtiya\u00e7 duyar<\/em> hale gelmi\u015fti. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol ve do\u011fal gaz vanas\u0131, bu iki \u00fclke \u00fczerinden d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131na ula\u015fmaya devam ediyordu.<\/p>\n

2020\u2019deki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Ermenistan ile Karaba\u011f aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 sa\u011flayan La\u00e7in Koridoru\u2019na yerle\u015ftirilmesi gereken Rus bar\u0131\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc konu\u015fland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in Moskova, fazla da acele etmeyince, Azerbaycan bunu f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirdi ve arkas\u0131nda kendisinin oldu\u011fu bir provokasyonla koridoru ele ge\u00e7irdi. B\u00f6ylece Ermenistan ile Karaba\u011f aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131 da kesilmi\u015f oldu. Koridorun Azerbaycan taraf\u0131ndan ele ge\u00e7irmesine sessiz kalan Rusya, Ermenistan\u2019a vermesi gereken silahlar\u0131 da vaktinde teslim etmedi. Hem de paras\u0131 \u00f6dendi\u011fi halde. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara tepki g\u00f6steren Pa\u015finyan, Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n KGA\u00d6 \u00fcyeli\u011fini bir sonraki duyuruya kadar ask\u0131ya ald\u0131 ve Moskova ile olan ittifak ili\u015fkilerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hal b\u00f6yle olunca yeni rota Bat\u0131\u2019dan, yani Washington ve Br\u00fcksel\u2019den ba\u015fkas\u0131 olmad\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da \u00f6zellikle Fransa\u2019n\u0131n Ermenistan ile ge\u00e7mi\u015fe dayal\u0131 yo\u011fun ili\u015fkileri s\u00f6z konusu. En b\u00fcy\u00fck Ermeni diasporas\u0131 Fransa\u2019da bulunuyor. Fransa, Ermenilere y\u00f6nelik soyk\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan binlerce m\u00fclteciyi kabul etmi\u015f ve \u00f6zellikle Azerbaycan ile olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda, yeni g\u00fcvenlik anla\u015fmalar\u0131yla askeri olarak da Ermenistan’a destek vermi\u015fti. 2024 ve 2025\u2019te yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalarla askeri i\u015fbirli\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirildi, stratejik ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n resmile\u015ftirildi.<\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n da tam deste\u011fini alan Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011finde Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm Azerbaycan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u015fine yarad\u0131. Zira Azerbaycan da bir s\u00fcredir Moskova\u2019dan ziyade Ankara, Tel Aviv ve as\u0131l olarak da Washington\u2019u g\u00f6zleyen bir siyasi hat \u00fczerinden ilerliyordu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Moskova-Bak\u00fc Hatt\u0131ndaki K\u0131r\u0131lmalar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusya-Azerbaycan ili\u015fkilerindeki en \u00f6nemli k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 ise 25 Aral\u0131k 2024\u2019te, be\u015f m\u00fcrettebat ve 62 yolcu ta\u015f\u0131yan bir Azerbaycan u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir Rus f\u00fczesi taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi oldu. Olay, Rus hava savunma g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Grozni \u00fczerinde meydana geldi. F\u00fczenin isabet etti\u011fi u\u00e7ak acil ini\u015f yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ancak Kazakistan\u2019\u0131n Aktau kenti yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve 38 ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. Bu yetmiyormu\u015f gibi, Haziran 2025 sonunda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Yekaterinburg kentinde Azerbaycan k\u00f6kenli birka\u00e7 ki\u015finin tutuklanmas\u0131na, Bak\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn tepkisi sert oldu. Tutuklananlardan ikisi, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 polis operasyonu sonucunda hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Azerbaycan D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Rus g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapt\u0131, \u00fclkede Rusya ile ilgili t\u00fcm k\u00fclt\u00fcrel etkinlikler iptal edildi. Rus haber ajans\u0131 Sputnik Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n ofisinde aramalar yap\u0131ld\u0131, Azerbaycanl\u0131 yetkililer iki Rus \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131 g\u00f6zalt\u0131na ald\u0131. Medyaya g\u00f6re bu ki\u015filer Rus gizli servisi FSB\u2019nin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re g\u00f6stermi\u015f oldu\u011fu bu sert tutumun arkas\u0131nda elbette, Moskova\u2019dan uzakla\u015farak Bat\u0131\u2019ya yakla\u015fman\u0131n hesaplar\u0131 vard\u0131. Bunun maddi ko\u015fullar\u0131 da bir s\u00fcredir olu\u015fturulmu\u015ftu. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB), ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu do\u011falgaz ve petrol\u00fc Azerbaycan\u2019dan almak i\u00e7in bir dizi anla\u015fma yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

19 Temmuz 2022\u2019de yap\u0131lan 18. AB-Azerbaycan \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ili\u015fkilerin derinle\u015ftirilmesine dair bir dizi karar al\u0131nd\u0131. Bu kapsamda Azerbaycan vatanda\u015flar\u0131na, baz\u0131 kriterler yerine gerilmek \u015fart\u0131yla vize kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 imkan\u0131 tan\u0131nd\u0131. At\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar kapsam\u0131nda AB, hem petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde hem de petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde Azerbaycan’\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 haline geldi[4]<\/a>. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda Azerbaycan’\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 63,3’\u00fc, ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 13,2’si AB’ye y\u00f6nelikti. \u0130hracatta en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay tahmin edilebilece\u011fi gibi petrol ve do\u011falgaza aitti. Gelinen a\u015famada Azerbaycan, AB’nin stratejik bir enerji orta\u011f\u0131 haline geldi ve AB’nin do\u011falgaz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 5’ini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Hazar Denizi\u2019ndeki do\u011falgaz ve petrol\u00fcn boru hatlar\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na dair de\u011fi\u015fik projeler de mevcut.<\/p>\n

Azerbaycan sahip oldu\u011fu enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak ekonomik ve askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re artt\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum Kremlin\u2019de bir s\u00fcredir rahats\u0131zl\u0131k yaratmaya da ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle a\u015famal\u0131 olarak Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Azerbaycan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemi sertle\u015fti ve \u201cAzerbaycan diasporas\u0131\u201dna yap\u0131lan bask\u0131larla mesaj vermenin hesab\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rotay\u0131 Washington\u2019a \u00e7eviren Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan\u2019\u0131 8 A\u011fustos 2025\u2019te ayn\u0131 masa etraf\u0131nda bir araya getirip, el s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p, \u00fcstelik bundan bir de Zengezur Koridoru anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmak ise Donald Trump\u2019a nasip oldu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zengezur Koridoru Neden Trump Koridoru Oldu?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc AB ve ABD\u2019ye \u00e7evirme konusunda hemfikir olan Ermenistan ve Azerbaycan aras\u0131ndaki Karaba\u011f\u2019dan sonraki en \u00f6nemli sorun olan Zengezur koridoru konusunda da Transkafkasya\u2019daki terazi dengesinde ibreyi ABD\u2019ye do\u011fru kayd\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n aleyhine geli\u015fen dengeler ABD emperyalizmine yeni f\u0131rsatlar yaratt\u0131. Azerbaycan ile eyaleti\/oblast\u0131 Nah\u00e7ivan\u2019\u0131n karadan birle\u015ftirilmesi y\u0131llard\u0131r hem Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck hayaliydi. Ermenistan ve Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n 8 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Beyaz Saray\u2019da el s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p i\u015f birli\u011fi mesaj\u0131 vermesinden sonra ABD ile Ermenistan aras\u0131nda imzalanan anla\u015fmayla \u201cUluslararas\u0131 Bar\u0131\u015f ve Refah \u0130\u00e7in Trump Yolu\u201d (TRIPP) ad\u0131n\u0131 alan Zengezur Koridorunun i\u015fletme hakk\u0131 99 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na ABD\u2019ye verildi. Azerbaycan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130lham Aliyev, koridorun i\u015fletme hakk\u0131n\u0131n Ermenistan\u2019dan ABD\u2019ye ge\u00e7mesini \u201cBug\u00fcn Kafkasya’da bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 tesis ediyoruz. Sava\u015flar, i\u015fgal ve kan d\u00f6k\u00fclmesiyle me\u015fgul olarak \u00e7ok uzun y\u0131llar kaybettik<\/em>\u201d dedi. Pa\u015finyan da anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131 iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerde \u201c\u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131<\/em>\u201d olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgedeki dengeleri yeniden dizayn eden ve 8 A\u011fustos 2025\u2019de Beyaz Saray\u2019da Ermenistan ile Azerbaycan aras\u0131nda imzalanan yedi maddelik anla\u015fmada \u015funlar yer al\u0131yordu::<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201c1) Liderler, Ermenistan ve Azerbaycan d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve devletleraras\u0131 ili\u015fkilerin tesisine y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fmay\u0131 paraf etmesine tan\u0131kl\u0131k etti. Anla\u015fman\u0131n en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede imzalanmas\u0131 ve onaylanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6stereceklerini beyan ettiler.<\/p>\n

2) D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n, Avrupa G\u00fcvenlik ve \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Te\u015fkilat\u0131na (AG\u0130T) Minsk S\u00fcreci\u2019ni sonland\u0131rmak \u00fczere ortak bir ba\u015fvuru imzalamas\u0131na da tan\u0131kl\u0131k ettiler. Minsk S\u00fcreci, Karaba\u011f sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zmek amac\u0131yla 1992\u2019de Rusya, ABD ve Fransa e\u015f ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda AG\u0130T platformunda ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

3) B\u00f6lgesel ileti\u015fim hatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cdevletlerin egemenli\u011fine, toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve yarg\u0131 yetkisine sayg\u0131 temelinde\u201d yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini teyit ettiler. Bu madde, \u00f6zellikle Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131 b\u00f6lgeleri ile Nah\u00e7\u0131van \u00d6zerk Cumhuriyeti oblast\u0131 aras\u0131nda Ermenistan topraklar\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u201cengelsiz ula\u015f\u0131m\u201d sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 kaps\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

4) Ermenistan, kendi topraklar\u0131nda \u201cUluslararas\u0131 Bar\u0131\u015f ve Refah i\u00e7in Trump G\u00fczergah\u0131\u201d (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity \u2014 TRIPP) adl\u0131 bir transit yolu olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in ABD ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkelerle birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131na g\u00f6re bu proje, Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n koridorun y\u00f6netimini 99 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na ABD\u2019ye devredece\u011fi \u00f6zel bir ortakl\u0131k \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

5) Liderler, \u201cge\u00e7mi\u015fin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f parlak bir gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik bir yol haritas\u0131 belirleme\u201d ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kabul etti. Bu s\u00fcrecin, BM \u015eart\u0131 ve 11 Sovyet cumhuriyetinin SSCB\u2019nin sona erdi\u011fini ilan etti\u011fi ve birbirlerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na ve toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne sayg\u0131 duydu\u011funu belirtti\u011fi 1991 tarihli Almat\u0131 Deklarasyonu uyar\u0131nca y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclece\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Liderler, \u201ciyi kom\u015fuluk ili\u015fkileri kurmak i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu\u201d ve \u201cbu ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin halklar\u0131m\u0131z aras\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011fa son verilmesinin yolunu a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ilan etti.<\/p>\n

6) Washington zirvesinin \u201cb\u00f6lgede kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sayg\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n tesisi i\u00e7in\u201d sa\u011flam bir temel olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fcvenlerini ifade ettiler.<\/p>\n

7) Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019a \u201cnazik misafirperverli\u011fi\u201d ve Ermenistan ile Azerbaycan aras\u0131ndaki \u201cikili ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fmesine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli katk\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in \u015f\u00fckranlar\u0131n\u0131 sundular.\u201d[5]<\/a><\/p>\n

ABD bu anla\u015fman\u0131n amac\u0131n\u0131 \u201c\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek ve b\u00f6lgeyi istikrara kavu\u015fturmak<\/em>\u201d olarak ilan etti. ABD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi Tom Barrack Temmuz 2025 ortas\u0131nda gazetecilere verdi\u011fi brifingde \u201ct\u00fcm taraflar\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na olanak sa\u011flayacak<\/em>\u201d bir d\u00fczenlemenin olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Axios’a konu\u015fan ABD\u2019li bir yetkili ise ABD\u2019nin bu kalk\u0131nma projesindeki ana amac\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran, Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019daki etkisini azaltmak oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yledi. Koridor, insanlar\u0131n ve mallar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ile Azerbaycan aras\u0131nda, \u0130ran ya da Rusya’dan ge\u00e7mek zorunda kalmadan, Orta Asya’ya nakledilmesini sa\u011flayacak. B\u00f6ylece ABD her y\u0131l milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k ticaretten faydalanacak. Rusya, \u0130ran ve \u00c7in ise anla\u015fmayla b\u00f6lgedeki siyasi, askeri ve ekonomik etkisini kaybediyor. Keza planlanan haliyle TRIPP, Ermenistan ile olan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Avrupa\u2019ya ticaret yapma kapasitesini \u00f6nemli oranda s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran sert tepki g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin Zengezur hamlesi, e\u011fer ko\u015fullar hep bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gibi devam ederse tahmin edilenden \u00e7ok daha karma\u015f\u0131k ve b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn habercisi. Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneydo\u011fusunda, \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n Synuik b\u00f6lgesinden ge\u00e7en yakla\u015f\u0131k 43 km uzunlu\u011fundaki Zengezur Koridoru, sadece Ermenistan \u00fczerinden Azerbaycan ile eyaleti Nah\u00e7ivan\u2019\u0131 karadan ba\u011flam\u0131yor, ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya ile \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ile T\u00fcrki Cumhuriyetler ve \u00c7in\u2019in daha \u00f6nce \u0130ran \u00fczerinden yapmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ku\u015fak-Yol Projesi\u2019nin Orta Koridoru\u2019na bir alternatif olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Koridor \u00fczerinde demiryolu, petrol, gaz ve fiber optik ve muhtemelen elektrik hatlar\u0131 in\u015fa edilecek.<\/p>\n

Ku\u015fak ve Yol Projesi\u2019nin \u201cOrta Koridoru\u201d, \u00c7in\u2019i T\u00fcrkmenistan-Hazar Denizi-Kafkasya-T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ba\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. 3 Temmuz 2013\u2019de T\u00fcrk Devletleri Te\u015fkilat\u0131 (TDT) \u00fcyelerinin ula\u015ft\u0131rma bakanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan imzalanan \u201cOrtak \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Protokol\u00fc\u201d neticesinde bu koridorun temelleri at\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Bak\u00fc, Aktau ve Samsun limanlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cKarde\u015f Liman\u201d olarak beyan eden bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131 da imzalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u201cOrta Koridor\u201dda \u0130ran\u2019a da rol bi\u00e7ilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

TRIPP ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 baypas ederek, Azerbaycan \u00fczerinden T\u00fcrki Cumhuriyetlere ve Orta Asya\u2019ya a\u00e7\u0131lan kap\u0131 olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 baypas etmekle kalm\u0131yor, ayn\u0131 zamanda Ermenistan \u00fczerinden devam eden \u0130ran-Rusya ticaret ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da tehdit ediyor. \u0130ran ile Rusya aras\u0131nda Ermenistan \u00fczerinden s\u00fcren ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131na da yol a\u00e7acak. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla TRIPP, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran ile Rusya aras\u0131nda konulmu\u015f bir kama \u00f6zelli\u011fi de ta\u015f\u0131yor. ABD ve m\u00fcttefiki Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda iki \u00fclkeden ticaret yeni TRIPP \u00fczerinden m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacak. Bu durumda her iki \u00fclkenin daha dolamba\u00e7l\u0131 ticaret yollar\u0131na ba\u015fvurmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Deutsche Welle\u2019ye b\u00f6lgedeki geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendiren Azerbaycanl\u0131 siyaset bilimci ve milletvekili Rasim Musabekov \u015f\u00f6yle diyor: \u201cGeli\u015fmeler Azerbaycan \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en uluslararas\u0131 \u2018Kuzey-G\u00fcney\u2019 ula\u015f\u0131m koridoru ve Rusya ile \u0130ran elektrik \u015febekelerini birle\u015ftiren projeler tehlikeye girebilir. Rusya\u2019dan \u0130ran\u2019a do\u011fal gaz naklinde zorluklar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez.<\/em>\u201d[6]<\/a><\/p>\n

TRIPP Anla\u015fmas\u0131yla ABD ayn\u0131 zamanda Zengezur\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a kom\u015fu da oluyor. 43 km uzunlu\u011fundaki koridorun i\u015fletilmesine ortak olan ABD\u2019nin gelecekte bir askeri \u00fcs kuraca\u011f\u0131 da ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclenler aras\u0131nda. Keza ABD\u2019nin koridordaki rol\u00fcn\u00fcn sadece yat\u0131r\u0131m de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00fcvenlik olaca\u011f\u0131 da anla\u015fmada yer al\u0131yor. Rotan\u0131n gelirlerinde ABD y\u00fczde 40, Ermenistan y\u00fczde 30, Azerbaycan y\u00fczde 30 pay sahibi olacak. Anla\u015fmada, koridorun g\u00fcvenli\u011finin ABD\u2019li \u00f6zel g\u00fcvenlik firmalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Ama bu ABD\u2019nin koridoru kendi askeri \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullanmayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\n

TRIPP\u2019in devreye girmesi \u201cOrta Koridor\u201dun Karadeniz ve T\u00fcrkiye ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 olan\u00a0G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n da \u00f6nemini azalt\u0131yor. Bak\u00fc-Tiflis-Ceyhan Boru Hatt\u0131, Trans-Anadolu Ulusal Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 veya Bak\u00fc-Tiflis-Kars Demiryolu Hatt\u0131, Ermenistan-Azerbaycan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle Ermenistan\u2019\u0131 baypas eden, G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a stratejik de\u011fer kazand\u0131ran projelerdi. Ermenistan ile T\u00fcrkiye ve Azerbaycan ili\u015fkilerinin normalle\u015fmesi b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nemini azalt\u0131rken, Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n stratejik de\u011ferini hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin TRIPP \u00fczerinden Transkafkasya\u2019n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ge\u00e7it yollar\u0131ndan biri olan Zengezur\u2019u i\u015fletme yoluyla ele ge\u00e7irmesinin ilk etapta Ermenistan, Azerbaycan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fine yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ran, \u00c7in ve AB ise anla\u015fman\u0131n kaybedenleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. AB de uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r G\u00fcrcistan ve Ermenistan \u00fczerinden tek ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7 olman\u0131n hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yordu. G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n kaybedilmesi durumunda Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n daha fazla ABD ile birlikte hareket etmesi, AB \u00fclkelerinin b\u00f6lgeye dair hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Zira, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede daha fazla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ba\u015fta Fransa ve Almanya olmak \u00fczere Avrupal\u0131 emperyalistlerin i\u015fine pek gelmiyor. Ama bu koridoru kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na g\u00f6re kullanmak istedikleri ger\u00e7e\u011fini de ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Zengezur Koridoru \u00fczerinden Do\u011fu ile Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 birle\u015ftiren enerji ve ticaret yollar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle Rusya ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131n\u0131n kopar\u0131lmas\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli bir rol oynuyor. \u0130srail-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sava\u015f ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD\u2019nin do\u011frudan sava\u015f\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmas\u0131 hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vadede Azerbaycan ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda derinle\u015fen askeri ve ticari ili\u015fkiler de b\u00f6lge a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in Ne Anlama Geliyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye egemen s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle SSCB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra, ba\u015fta Azerbaycan olmak \u00fczere T\u00fcrki Cumhuriyetlerle her d\u00fczeyde ili\u015fkileri geli\u015ftirmenin, bu \u00fclkeleri bir arka bah\u00e7e olarak kullanman\u0131n hayalini kurmu\u015ftu. \u00d6zellikle, Azerbaycan ile \u201ctek millet iki devlet\u201d s\u00f6ylemi \u00fczerinden kurulan ba\u011flara ra\u011fmen Azerbaycan ile Ermenistan aras\u0131ndaki sorunlar do\u011frudan transit ge\u00e7i\u015f yollar\u0131n\u0131 engelliyordu. \u00a0Bu temelde Ermenistan ile tarihsel nedenlerden kaynaklanan husumetin bitirilmesi, ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015ftirilmesi ad\u0131na zaman zaman at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar da bir sonu\u00e7 vermemi\u015fti. Bu nedende Ermenistan hep T\u00fcrkiye ile T\u00fcrki Cumhuriyetler aras\u0131nda bir engel olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Bu durum asl\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

TRIPP ile ABD\u2019nin himayesinde olsa da Orta Asya\u2019daki T\u00fcrki Cumhuriyetler ile ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bir kazan\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nitekim Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, daha anla\u015fma imzalanmadan 21 Temmuz 2025\u2019te \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131: \u201cZengezur Koridoru sadece Azerbaycan, Ermenistan ve T\u00fcrkiye’ye de\u011fil b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer \u00fclkelere de fayda sa\u011flayacak. Biz bu hatt\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda jeoekonomik boyutu itibar\u0131yla son derece \u00f6nemli bir konu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nitekim, bu hat b\u00f6lgemizin \u00f6tesindeki co\u011frafyalar\u0131 da birbirine ba\u011flayacak ve ticareti canland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu hatt\u0131n bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, bir mutabakat simgesi haline gelmesi temel beklentimizdir. Bu sayede b\u00f6lge i\u015f birli\u011finin galebe \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir refah alan\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/em>\u201d[7]<\/a><\/p>\n

TRIPP\u2019in devreye girmesi T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in Orta Asya, \u00c7in ve Hindistan ile olan ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendirecek. \u0130ran ile do\u011frudan bir sava\u015f ya da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki yollar da kullan\u0131lmaya devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Projenin ABD himayesine ge\u00e7mesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi rahats\u0131z etmedi\u011fi gibi ABD ile uyumlu ili\u015fki i\u00e7inde olan T\u00fcrkiye ve Azerbaycan bunu bir kazan\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Zira gelecekte ba\u015fta Ermenistan olmak \u00fczere b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri; Rusya, \u0130ran ve \u00c7in ile ya\u015fanacak sorunlar\u0131n birinci muhatab\u0131 ABD olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bir bak\u0131ma rahat hissediyorlar. Her ne kadar T\u00fcrkiye bug\u00fcn tam anlam\u0131yla geli\u015fmelerden rahats\u0131z olmazsa da as\u0131l hedefi kendisinin b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol etme, Zengezur\u2019u Kalk\u0131nma Yolu\u2019na ba\u011flama hayali vard\u0131. Yeni durumda ABD\u2019den rol kapabildi\u011fi ya da ABD\u2019nin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu kadar\u0131yla yetinmek zorunda kalacak.<\/p>\n

Ancak, orta ve uzun vadede TRIPP\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00e7ok Azerbaycan\u2019a yarayaca\u011f\u0131 da s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ran ve Rusya\u2019ya kom\u015fuluk Bat\u0131l\u0131 emperyalist devletler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131, Transkafkasya\u2019da kilit \u00f6neme sahip stratejik bir \u00fclke haline getiriyor. \u0130ki d\u00fc\u015fman \u00fclkeyle olan s\u0131n\u0131r kom\u015fulu\u011fu stratejik \u00f6nem bak\u0131m\u0131ndan Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nemini gelecekte daha da artt\u0131racak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna bir de sahip oldu\u011fu enerji kaynaklar\u0131 da eklendi\u011finde, halen ikili oynayan Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc her bak\u0131mdan Bat\u0131\u2019ya \u00e7evirmesi durumunda b\u00f6lgede pek \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan dengeler de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n

10 milyon n\u00fcfusu olan Azerbaycan, Bat\u0131l\u0131 tekeller i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir pazar olmamakla birlikte Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu do\u011fal gaz ve petrol rezervlerine sahip. Petrol ve do\u011fal gaz \u00fcretimi, Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019sinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Devlet gelirlerinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve ihracat gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 yine petrol ve do\u011fal gaz sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 G\u00fcrcistan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den ge\u00e7en boru hatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden Yunanistan, Arnavutluk ve \u0130talya\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Azerbaycan ayr\u0131ca d\u00fcnyaya s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz sat\u0131yor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k 48,7 milyar metrek\u00fcp do\u011fal gaz ve 30,2 milyon ton ham petrol \u00fcretimi (2023 y\u0131l\u0131 rakamlar\u0131) ile Azerbaycan k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00fcreticiler aras\u0131nda yer almakla birlikte AB i\u00e7in \u00f6nemi giderek art\u0131yor. \u015eu anda Norve\u00e7, Cezayir ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 7\u2019lik pay\u0131yla AB’nin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal gaz tedarik\u00e7isi.\u201d[8]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

TotalEnergies ve Azerbaycan’\u0131n petrol ve gaz \u015firketi SOCAR, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni Ab\u015feron gaz sahas\u0131n\u0131 faaliyete ge\u00e7irirken BP liderli\u011findeki bir konsorsiyum yeni ke\u015ffedilen b\u00fcy\u00fck gaz yataklar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftiriyor.[9]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Geli\u015fmeler, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Rusya d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00f6neldi\u011fi alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nemini ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum do\u011fal olarak T\u00fcrkiye-Azerbaycan ili\u015fkilerinde \u201cabi-karde\u015f\u201d ili\u015fkisini de de\u011fi\u015ftirme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor. Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n sahip oldu\u011fu jeostratejik konum, enerji kaynaklar\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130srail ekseni ve Avrupa ile kurdu\u011fu ili\u015fkiler dikkatle izlemeye de\u011fer.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Her \u015eey Anla\u015fmadaki Gibi Olmayacak<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin TRIPP ile Transkafkasya\u2019ya att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131m emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elbette \u00f6nemli bir hamle. Ancak, her \u015feyin anla\u015fmadaki gibi hayat bulmayaca\u011f\u0131 da bug\u00fcnden s\u00f6ylenebilir. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce, Zengezur koridorunun ABD\u2019li \u015firketler taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fletilmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in Ermenistan Anayasas\u0131\u2019nda Azerbaycan\u2019dan toprak talebini i\u00e7eren, Karaba\u011f\u2019\u0131n Ermeni topra\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu ifade eden maddelerin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu konuda yap\u0131lacak bir referandumdan Azerbaycan ile ili\u015fkilerin ABD ve AB\u2019nin istedi\u011fi y\u00f6nde normalle\u015ftirilmesini i\u00e7eren bir sonucun \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 durumunda, TRIPP\u2019in hayata ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci en \u00f6nemli konu ise anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalayan \u00fclkelerdeki siyasi dengelerin ne olaca\u011f\u0131yla ilgili. G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi sermaye kesimleri ve akt\u00f6rler yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanabilirler. Rusya ile ekonomik, siyasi, askeri ve tarihsel a\u00e7\u0131dan yak\u0131n ba\u011flara sahip, i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7i\u015flerin oldu\u011fu Trankafkasya\u2019da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n etkisini tamamen yok edip, enerji ve ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00fczergah\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Buna bir de \u0130ran ve \u00c7in etkisi eklendi\u011finde, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 istikrar olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6nmesi durumunda da Bat\u0131 elde etti\u011fi mevziler \u00fczerinden istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklemeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n

Ermenistan\u2019da 2026 yaz\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan parlamento se\u00e7imleri bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Son anketlerde Pa\u015finyan\u2019a destek oran\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131nda.[10]<\/a> Uzun s\u00fcredir d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nceli\u011fi olarak belirledi\u011fi Azerbaycan ile bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131nda bir ilerleme kaydetmesi durumunda Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 toplayabilece\u011fi ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak tersi e\u011filim \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da dayanaklar\u0131n\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irece\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda TRIPP\u2019in birinci y\u0131l\u0131nda bile i\u015fler tersine d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n

Transkafkasya\u2019daki emperyalist dala\u015ftan en fazla etkilenecek \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gelece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131l\u0131 emperyalist devletlerin Transkafkasya \u00fczerinden yapmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da planlayaca\u011f\u0131 hamlelerden birisi \u0130ran\u2019daki rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini bir kez daha denemek olacakt\u0131r. TRIPP bir taraftan \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ticaret yollar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019a bi\u00e7ti\u011fi rol\u00fc azalt\u0131rken di\u011fer taraftan ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 kuzeyden askeri olarak ku\u015fatmaya olanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u0130ran-Azerbaycan aras\u0131nda karadan ba\u011flant\u0131y\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u201cAras Koridoru\u201d da \u00f6nceli\u011fini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yitirecek. Bu nedenle, anla\u015fmaya en sert tepki g\u00f6steren \u00fclkenin \u0130ran olmas\u0131 bo\u015funa de\u011fil. \u0130ran dini lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney\u2019in dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Ali Ekber Velayeti, koridorun b\u00f6lgenin jeopolitik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fini ve Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015fmayla bir enerji ve ticaret koridoru olmay\u0131 hedefleyen T\u00fcrkiye ise etraf\u0131nda olu\u015facak istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan do\u011fal olarak etkilenecek \u00fclkelerden birisi. Ermenistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Nikol Pe\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n son aylarda T\u00fcrkiye ile ili\u015fkileri normalle\u015ftirmek istedikleri y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki mesajlar\u0131 da ABD ve Avrupa ekseninde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131. Ancak ili\u015fkilerin hangi temeller \u00fczerinden normalle\u015ftirilece\u011fine dair Ermenistan halk\u0131n\u0131 memnun edecek, tarihsel y\u00fczle\u015fmeye kap\u0131 aralayacak bir yola girilmemesi durumunda ters tepme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak iyi niyet mesajlar\u0131 verilmi\u015f, ancak ciddi bir ilerleme sa\u011flanamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle Erivan-Ankara hatt\u0131nda at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar, kat edilecek yol da b\u00f6lgedeki dengeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/p>\n

Olup bitenler, emperyalist devletler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini Transkafkasya\u2019da uzak olmayan bir d\u00f6nemde sert bir \u015fekilde kendisini hissettirece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kaybetti\u011fi alanlara yeniden d\u00f6nme hamlesi yapmas\u0131 uzak bir ihtimal de\u011fil. TRIPP hamlesi ile bir taraftan \u201cOrta Ku\u015fak\u201d ticaret yolunun nereden ge\u00e7ece\u011finin g\u00fczergah\u0131 belirlenirken, di\u011fer taraftan da Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan \u0130ran ile Rusya aras\u0131na her a\u00e7\u0131dan bir barikat \u00f6rmeyi de hedefliyor. Daha do\u011frusu ba\u011flant\u0131 kopar\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunun bir sonraki hamlesinin ABD-\u0130srail-Azerbaycan \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ittifak\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7me olaca\u011f\u0131 da bug\u00fcnden s\u00f6ylenebilir. En az\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi planlayanlar\u0131n ajandas\u0131nda bunun oldu\u011fu bir s\u0131r de\u011fil. Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm M\u00fcsl\u00fcman \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u0130srail’in en \u00f6nemli m\u00fcttefiki olmas\u0131 da bunu g\u00f6steriyor. ABD-AB eksenli emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131n bu hamlesine kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ran, Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgeyle ilgili planlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irecekleri de anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Halklar\u0131 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131k ve \u015fovenizm tohumlar\u0131 ekilen Ermenistan ile Azerbaycan aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015flar\u0131n bitmesi bir olumluluk olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 ayr\u0131ca Ermeni soyk\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 nedeniyle ya\u015fanan tart\u0131\u015fmalarla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki emek\u00e7iler \u00fczerinde de Ermeni d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n etkili olmas\u0131nda rol oynad\u0131. Ancak yap\u0131lan anla\u015fma, halklar\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde bir arada ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 temin etmekten \u00e7ok ABD emperyalizminin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na hizmet etmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla emperyalistlerin dayatmas\u0131yla at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n yine bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin b\u00f6lgesel hesaplar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7im kazanmas\u0131 ve yeni gerilim ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 da s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnden yeni sava\u015f risklerine gebe olan Transkafkasya\u2019daki geli\u015fmleri, elbette d\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki payla\u015f\u0131m m\u00fccadelesinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Tagesschau de (2024) \u201cArmenien sucht neue Partner \u2013 Russlands Nachbarn wenden sich ab<\/em>\u201d, https:\/\/www.tagesschau.de\/ausland\/europa\/armenien-russland-usa-eu-100.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> Tschernikow, R. (2025) \u201cDie armenisch-russischen Beziehungen\u201d, Dekoder<\/em>, https:\/\/www.dekoder.org\/de\/gnose\/die-armenisch-russischen-beziehungen\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Tschernikow, Die armenisch-russischen Beziehungen.<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> Rat der Europ\u00e4ischen Union. (2025) \u201cAserbaidschan\u201d, Consilium<\/em>, https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/de\/policies\/azerbaijan\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[5]<\/a> Harici (2025) \u201cTrump Koridoru anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n detaylar\u0131\u201d, https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/trump-koridoru-anlasmasinin-detaylari\/<\/p>\n

[6]<\/sup><\/a> DW (2025) \u201cVerliert Russland seinen Verb\u00fcndeten Aserbaidschan?\u201d, https:\/\/www.dw.com\/de\/verliert-russland-seinen-verb%C3%BCndeten-aserbaidschan\/a-73126126<\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> BBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e (2025) \u201cZengezur Koridoru hakk\u0131nda neler biliniyor?\u201d, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/turkce\/articles\/c5yp2kw3142o<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> Zabanova, Y. (2024) \u201cDie Energiepartnerschaft zwischen EU und Aserbaidschan: kurzfristiger Nutzen, unsichere Zukunft\u201d, boell.de\/de\/2024\/11\/12\/die-energiepartnerschaft-zwischen-eu-und-aserbaidschan-kurzfristiger-nutzen-unsichere<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Enerji G\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc (2023) \u201cTotalEnergies ve SOCAR Azerbaycan\u2019da gaz \u00fcretimine ba\u015flad\u0131\u201d, https:\/\/www.enerjigunlugu.net\/totalenergies-ve-socar-azerbaycanda-gaz-uretimine-basladi-54785h.htm<\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> St\u00f6ber, V. S. (2022) \u201cAlleingelassen von Putin\u201d, https:\/\/www.tagesschau.de\/ausland\/europa\/russland-ovks-kaukasus-tuerkei-101.html<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Y\u00fccel \u00d6zdemir   D\u00fcnyan\u0131n pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesi ko\u015fullar ve imk\u00e2nlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde emperyalist devletler aras\u0131nda yeniden payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Berlin Duvar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (SSCB) da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra emperyalist rekabetin ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 boyut de\u011fi\u015fik d\u00fczeylerde sertle\u015ferek devam ediyor. \u201cPayla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d bitece\u011fi tezinin bir safsatadan ibaret oldu\u011fu her ge\u00e7en y\u0131l daha da netle\u015fiyor. Bat\u0131l\u0131 kapitalist-emperyalist devletlerin hedefindeki SSCB ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[792,376,361],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-70-sayi-kis-2025-2026","category-dunya","category-yucel-ozdemir"],"yoast_head":"\nTranskafkasya\u2019da Emperyalist Hesaplar, Zengezur Koridoru ve TRIPP<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2026\/01\/22\/zengezur\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Transkafkasya\u2019da Emperyalist Hesaplar, Zengezur Koridoru ve TRIPP\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Y\u00fccel \u00d6zdemir   D\u00fcnyan\u0131n pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesi ko\u015fullar ve imk\u00e2nlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde emperyalist devletler aras\u0131nda yeniden payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. 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