{"id":3485,"date":"2023-08-15T00:14:01","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T21:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/?p=3485"},"modified":"2023-08-15T00:14:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T21:14:01","slug":"secim-enflasyon-ve-bolusum-soku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2023\/08\/15\/secim-enflasyon-ve-bolusum-soku\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im, enflasyon ve b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u015foku"},"content":{"rendered":"

|\u00a0 Arif Ko\u015far<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Giri\u015f<\/h5>\n

Ana ak\u0131m liberal ekonomistlere g\u00f6re son y\u0131llardaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon, hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki adaletsizli\u011fin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 AKP iktidar\u0131n\u0131n izledi\u011fi \u201cirrasyonel<\/em>\u201d ekonomi politikalar\u0131yla ilgili. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u201cideolojik<\/em>\u201d motivasyonlarla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizde \u0131srar etmesi, otoriterle\u015fen siyasal y\u00f6netim, kurumlar\u0131n \u201cba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/em>\u201dn\u0131n kalmamas\u0131 \u00fclkenin uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine zarar veriyor, bu da hem yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fini k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor hem de bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131yordu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla h\u0131zla eski normale d\u00f6n\u00fclmeliydi.<\/p>\n

Cumhur \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Aday\u0131 Erdo\u011fan ikinci turda oylar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu almay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Muhalif liberal ekonomistler ekonominin iyice k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 olarak Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in atanmas\u0131 onlar i\u00e7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa bir umut oldu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u015eim\u015fek, ana ak\u0131m iktisad\u0131n temel ilkelerine ba\u011fl\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 finansal piyasalarda sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan ve rasyonel politikalara inanan bir isimdi. \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in genel yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n son s\u00fcre\u00e7te girdi\u011fi ekonomik rota ile uyu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0131srarc\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u201cNas\u201d politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ti\u011fi, en az\u0131ndan belirli geri \u00e7ekilmeleri kabul etti\u011fi de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, Erdo\u011fan da ekonominin iyice s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n had safhaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonomide bu durumun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bunlar\u0131n do\u011fru olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Ancak, sorun \u015fu ki, muhalefetin ve iktidar\u0131n savunageldi\u011fi, \u015eim\u015fek ile Erdo\u011fan aras\u0131ndaki kimi farkl\u0131l\u0131klara da denk d\u00fc\u015fen iki hat, emek\u00e7iler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201ck\u0131rk kat\u0131r m\u0131 k\u0131rk sat\u0131r m\u0131?\u201d durumundan pek de farkl\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi biraz se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesine giderek tabloya daha yak\u0131ndan bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

AKP\u2019li elitlere g\u00f6re, a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131 iktidarla de\u011fil olsa olsa b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyen, sava\u015fla ili\u015fkili enflasyon\/maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin operasyonlar\u0131yla ilgiliydi.<\/p>\n

Her a\u00e7\u0131klama, genellikle, az ya da \u00e7ok ger\u00e7eklik pay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Ger\u00e7ekten de y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00fcnya genelinde akt\u00fcel bir sorun. Ancak, ABD, Almanya, Fransa\u2019daki y\u00fcksek enflasyon %10 civarlar\u0131nda iken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kimi zaman y\u00fczde y\u00fcze yakla\u015ft\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla farkl\u0131 bir \u015feylerin oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. \u00d6te yandan kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, AKP\u2019nin izledi\u011fi ekonomi politikas\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f politikadaki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u201ccayd\u0131rd\u0131<\/em>\u201d, d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi azald\u0131, bu da ekonominin dengesini bozucu etkilere neden oldu. Ama sorun \u015fu ki, muhalefet, iktidar\u0131n uzun y\u0131llar beslendi\u011fi yabanc\u0131 sermaye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tatmin edilmemesini ele\u015ftirmekle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir perspektife sahip.<\/p>\n

Bahsi ge\u00e7en olgular\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00f6demeler dengesi, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi gibi g\u00f6stergeleri \u00fczerinde etkili oldu\u011fu, do\u011frudan ya da dolayl\u0131 olarak emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi do\u011fru. Bununla birlikte, emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmenin \u00e7ok daha k\u00f6kl\u00fc ve daha uzun vadeli nedenleri var. Bunlar\u0131n tespiti, sadece sorunun daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011fil \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc ve iyile\u015ftirici \u00f6nlemlerin belirlenmesi, bunlar i\u00e7in m\u00fccadelenin organize edilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da kritik \u00f6nemde.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenlerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131, \u00f6zellikle son \u00e7eyrek y\u00fczy\u0131lda, iktisadi ili\u015fkiler ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131 yeniden d\u00fczenleyen s\u00f6zde reformlarla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Yoksulla\u015ft\u0131ran ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/h5>\n

Cumhur \u0130ttifak\u0131, Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en az yar\u0131s\u0131 ve ana ak\u0131m liberal iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in ilk iki AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmeti s\u0131ras\u0131nda izlenen ekonomi politika ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ve iktisad\u0131n \u201cbilimsel<\/em>\u201d ilkelerine gayet uygun.<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa, AKP\u2019nin ilk d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cAKP\u2019ye ait<\/em>\u201d denebilecek herhangi bir ekonomik program s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildi. 2001 krizinin ard\u0131ndan, sonras\u0131nda CHP Milletvekili olan Kemal Dervi\u015f arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ve IMF ile i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7inde bir istikrar program\u0131 belirlenmi\u015fti: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Ekonomiye Ge\u00e7i\u015f Program\u0131. AKP, ilk d\u00f6nemlerinde bu programa neredeyse harfi harfine uydu.<\/p>\n

Bu, tam anlam\u0131yla emek d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 bir programd\u0131. Emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n gelir ve hak kay\u0131plar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle dikkat \u00e7ekilebilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 ise \u015funlard\u0131:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Merkez Bankas\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Bankan\u0131n temel amac\u0131 \u201cfiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak<\/em>\u201d olarak belirlendi. Kurumsal yap\u0131s\u0131 \u201cba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z<\/em>\u201d hale getirildi. Bunun anlam\u0131 \u015fuydu: Merkez Bankas\u0131 para politikas\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla her y\u0131l i\u00e7in enflasyon hedefi belirledi. Bu hedef, fiilen asgari \u00fccreti ve genel olarak \u00fccretleri enflasyon \u201chedefi<\/em>\u201d ile s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Kamu emek\u00e7ileri ve emekli maa\u015flar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuldu. \u201cPop\u00fclist<\/em>\u201d vaatler engellendi.<\/li>\n
  2. Kamu i\u015fletmelerinin \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmesi bu d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131z kazand\u0131. T\u00dcPRA\u015e, Petkim, TEKEL, SEKA, Telekom, \u015feker fabrikalar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilerek sermayeye devredildi, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ise kapat\u0131ld\u0131. Kamu i\u015fletmelerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan i\u015f\u00e7i say\u0131s\u0131 h\u0131zla azald\u0131. B\u00f6ylece i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n en g\u00fcvenceli, sendikal\u0131 ve g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek \u00fccret alan b\u00f6l\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tasfiye edilmi\u015f oldu.<\/li>\n
  3. Kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi \u201cmali disiplin<\/em>\u201d ilkesi etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillendirildi. Sermayeye yap\u0131lan te\u015fviklerle kamu gelirleri azald\u0131k\u00e7a, buna uygun bir bi\u00e7imde kamu harcamalar\u0131 da k\u0131s\u0131lmal\u0131yd\u0131. Bunun ilk sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan birisi e\u011fitim, sa\u011fl\u0131k, emeklilik, yerel hizmetler gibi kamusal hizmet alanlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 oldu. Kamusal hizmetlerin niteli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc ve piyasaya a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. E\u011fitim ve sa\u011fl\u0131k alan\u0131nda binlerce \u00f6zel i\u015fletme kuruldu. \u00d6zel emeklilik \u015firketleri zorunlu BES vb. dayatmalarla te\u015fvik edildi. Bu durum, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u00fccretsiz olan \u00e7ok say\u0131da kamu hizmetinin tasfiyesine, emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n giderek sat\u0131n almak zorunda kald\u0131klar\u0131 metalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu.<\/li>\n
  4. Bir di\u011fer kritik \u201creform<\/em>\u201d i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki \u201ckat\u0131l\u0131k<\/em>\u201dlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve esnekle\u015fmeydi. AKP\u2019nin ilk icraatlar\u0131ndan biri olan ve 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda onaylanan 4857 say\u0131l\u0131 \u0130\u015f Kanunu ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcreleri, istihdam bi\u00e7imleri, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma mekan\u0131 esnekle\u015ftirildi. O zamandan bu yana ta\u015feron, s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli ve g\u00fcvencesiz \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma t\u00fcm \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131nda egemen hale geldi.<\/li>\n
  5. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu politikalar\u0131n uygulanabilmesinin temel ko\u015fulu i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n direni\u015finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu da, hem mevcut sendikalar\u0131n ele ge\u00e7irilmesi, sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcrokratikle\u015fmesiyle, hem de yeni sendikal \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme giri\u015fimlerinin iktidar taraf\u0131ndan do\u011frudan bask\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Grev yasaklar\u0131, \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme \u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7ekilen setler, i\u015ften atmalar ve uzayan yetki davalar\u0131yla sendikalar i\u015flevsiz hale getirildi, i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriletildi. Toplu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli i\u015f\u00e7i oran\u0131 azald\u0131.<\/li>\n
  6. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 neredeyse \u00e7eyrek y\u00fczy\u0131l boyunca \u00e7ift haneli rakamlarda kald\u0131. Bu sadece milyonlarca i\u015fsizi yoksullu\u011fa mahkum etmekle kalmad\u0131, i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan b\u00f6l\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczerinde de daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccret ve a\u011f\u0131r ko\u015fullarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n dayat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 \u015feyi, \u00fclkenin d\u00f6rt bir yan\u0131na \u00e7ok say\u0131da niteliksiz \u00fcniversite a\u00e7arak e\u011fitimli i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in de yapt\u0131lar.<\/li>\n
  7. Tar\u0131msal destekler azalt\u0131ld\u0131. Kimi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde kotalar getirildi, ithalat\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Artan maliyetler, azalan destek ve ithalat girdab\u0131ndaki geni\u015f k\u00f6yl\u00fc y\u0131\u011f\u0131nlar\u0131 \u00fcretemez hale geldi. Topra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti ya da terk etti. Kente ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc olarak g\u00f6\u00e7mek zorunda kald\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u00d6zetle, \u00f6vg\u00fcyle bahsedilen AKP\u2019nin ilk d\u00f6nemlerinde, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden emek\u00e7ilerin pay alamamas\u0131 ya da olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir pay almas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, ana ak\u0131m muhaliflerin bug\u00fcn de savunageldikleri neoliberal politik hat ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmd\u00fc. Bu d\u00f6nem, literat\u00fcrde hakl\u0131 olarak \u201cistihdams\u0131z<\/em>\u201d ya da \u201cyoksulla\u015ft\u0131ran b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/em>\u201d olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    2013 kav\u015fa\u011f\u0131<\/h5>\n

    Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ra\u011fmen yoksulluk ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7en sosyo-ekonomik ve neoliberal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmle ilgiliydi. Bununla birlikte, AKP bu d\u00f6nemde, bir t\u00fcr sahte refah g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc sa\u011flamay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131 ve bu, AKP\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck talihi olarak nitelendirilebilecek uygun uluslararas\u0131 ko\u015fullarla ilgiliydi.<\/p>\n

    Bu refah iki nedenle sahteydi: \u201cRefah<\/em>\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flayan ve TL\u2019yi de\u011ferli k\u0131lan bol ve ucuz d\u00f6viz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yd\u0131. \u0130kincisi, kolay bor\u00e7lanmaya dayal\u0131yd\u0131 ve bunun da bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 vard\u0131.<\/p>\n

    2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD merkezli dot.com krizinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 parasal geli\u015fme politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya adeta dolar ya\u011fd\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u0131llarda ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkelere d\u00f6viz bi\u00e7iminde yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi h\u0131zla artt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye, 2013 sonuna kadar, bu dolar bollu\u011fu sayesinde TL\u2019yi de\u011ferli tutabilmi\u015f, ithal mallar\u0131 daha kolay t\u00fcketmi\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kredi avantaj\u0131ndan yararlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimi art\u0131ran bir etken olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

    Mekanizma \u015f\u00f6yle i\u015flemi\u015fti: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki faiz, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da, geli\u015fmi\u015f kapitalist \u00fclkelerdeki faizlere nazaran y\u00fcksekti ve bu, \u00fclkeye yo\u011fun bir sermaye giri\u015fi sa\u011flad\u0131. Bol d\u00f6viz ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketimi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme de nispeten h\u0131zl\u0131 seyretti. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, do\u011fal olarak sermayenin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiydi. Neoliberal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmle birlikte ilerledi\u011fi i\u00e7in emek\u00e7iler bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden yararlanmak bir yana, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriledi. \u00d6te yandan TL de\u011ferli oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlere emek\u00e7ilerin ula\u015fmas\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kolayla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131 sayesinde, emek\u00e7ilerin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesi gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n sa\u011flanabilmi\u015fti. Ancak, bor\u00e7lanmaya, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli TL\u2019ye ve d\u00f6viz bollu\u011funa dayal\u0131 bu \u201crefah<\/em>\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn sonsuza kadar s\u00fcrmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n

    2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda, AKP\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k on y\u0131l boyunca yararland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz bollu\u011fu ve ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sonuna gelindi. \u0130ktidar\u0131n y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ekonomi politikas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz hale geldi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u00fcretimi ve t\u00fcketimi te\u015fvik edecekti, ancak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretimin yap\u0131s\u0131 gere\u011fi d\u00f6viz bi\u00e7iminde sermaye giri\u015fi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemezdi. AKP\u2019nin faiz indirimi ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rmak istedi\u011fi her s\u00fcrecin sonunda b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na gidildi. 2014, 2016, 2018 ve 2020 y\u0131llar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan buydu. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn birlikte devam etmesi art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi. B\u00f6ylece emek\u00e7iler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lar\u0131 yeni bor\u00e7larla finanse etme olanaklar\u0131 darald\u0131. Yeni tablo, emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki gerilemeyi \u00e7ok daha \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde deneyimlenmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    H\u00fck\u00fcmetin tercihi<\/h5>\n

    2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda se\u00e7im sath\u0131 mailine girildi\u011finde AKP\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde iki se\u00e7enek vard\u0131. Birincisi, faizleri y\u00fckseltip \u00fclkeye -en az\u0131ndan bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde- d\u00f6viz bi\u00e7iminde sermaye \u00e7ekmek, b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyonda y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak. Ancak bu, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve -konut ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere- t\u00fcketimi olumsuz etkileyecek, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ket vuracakt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flaman\u0131n muhtemel sonucu ise i\u015fsizlik ve y\u00fcksek faiz nedeniyle KOB\u0130 iflaslar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hem IMF belgelerinde ifade edilen hem de T\u00dcS\u0130AD ve Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n savundu\u011fu bu alternatife g\u00f6re, k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme yerine, \u201csa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/em>\u201d hedeflenmeli, piyasa dengeyi bulana kadar i\u015fsizlik gibi baz\u0131 maliyetlere katlan\u0131lmal\u0131yd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca kapsaml\u0131 bir kemer s\u0131kma program\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irilmeliydi.<\/p>\n

    \u0130kinci alternatif, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizde \u0131srar etmekti. B\u00f6ylece i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6nlenecek, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim canlanacakt\u0131. Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki hareketlilik bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olumlu etkileyecekti. TL\u2019den ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla d\u00f6viz kuru y\u00fckselecek, bu da ihracat\u00e7\u0131 sermaye gruplar\u0131n\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131racakt\u0131. Se\u00e7im tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve AKP\u2019nin kitleler \u00fczerindeki etkisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin tercihi ikincisi oldu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz<\/em>\u201d ile simgelenen iktisadi politika, basit\u00e7e \u201cekonomi bilmezlik<\/em>\u201d de\u011fildi. S\u0131n\u0131fsal ve toplumsal kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, kazanan\u0131 ve kaybedeni olan politik bir tercihti. 6 Haziran 2022\u2019de Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 Nureddin Nebati, \u201cBu sistemden dar gelirliler hari\u00e7 \u00fcretici firmalar, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar k\u00e2r ediyorlar<\/em>\u201d diyerek tabloyu tarif etmi\u015fti.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

    \u0130ktidar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sorun \u015fu ki, ikinci alternatifte ama\u00e7lanan hedefleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek pek kolay de\u011fildi. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ko\u015fullar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle kredi vermek, bankalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip de\u011fildi. Uygulama, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kamu bankalar\u0131 ve yanda\u015f \u015firketlerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu bile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu ve bankalar\u0131n kredi faiz oran\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin belirledi\u011fi politika faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

    D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizin ilk sonucu d\u00f6vize y\u00f6nelik talebin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, kurun y\u00fckselmesi ve enflasyonun patlamas\u0131 oldu. Dolar ve Euro bir birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7erisinde iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon Ekim 2021\u2019de %19,9 iken Ekim 2022\u2019de %85,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (bkz. Grafik 1<\/em>)<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Grafik 1. <\/strong>T\u00dcFE (Y\u0131ll\u0131k % De\u011fi\u015fim)<\/p>\n

    Kaynak:<\/strong> TCMB, T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Bu, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekledi\u011fi ve g\u00f6ze ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7tu. S\u00fcrpriz olan bunun \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131r\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz kurundaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde y\u00fcz\u00fc a\u015fmas\u0131 ve adeta kitlesel bir seferberlikle TL\u2019den ka\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 oldu. 20 Aral\u0131k 2021\u2019de Kur Korumal\u0131 TL Mevduat (KKM) uygulamas\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahaleleri ile kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde durduruldu. Ancak, \u00fcretimin ithalata dayal\u0131 niteli\u011fi gere\u011fi d\u00f6viz talebi varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00dcretimin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesi i\u00e7in enerji, hammadde, yar\u0131-mamul madde ve \u00fcretim arac\u0131 laz\u0131m ve bu da ancak d\u00f6vizle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bir d\u00f6viz krizi tehlikesi hep kap\u0131da oldu. \u00d6yle ki, bu kriz h\u0131zla kapsaml\u0131 bir ekonomik krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilirdi. KKM ve di\u011fer \u00f6nlemlerin bunu yava\u015flatmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olduysa da yok etmesi elbette m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi. AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin hedefi de se\u00e7ime kadar idare edebilmekti. Se\u00e7imden sonra zaten b\u00f6yle devam etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    B\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u015foku<\/h5>\n

    Kapitalizmin genel e\u011filimi sermayenin yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u00fcretilen zenginli\u011fin giderek daha az elde toplanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 e\u011filimin bir di\u011fer ifadesi de i\u015f\u00e7ilerin toplam \u00fcretimden giderek daha az pay almas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

    Ancak, her toplumsal yasa kar\u015f\u0131t ya da destekleyici etkenlerle yava\u015flat\u0131labilir, ge\u00e7ici de olsa tersine \u00e7evrilebilir ya da h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131labilir. \u00d6yle ki, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bat\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde i\u015f\u00e7ilerin toplam gelirden ald\u0131klar\u0131 pay 1970\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar artm\u0131\u015f, reel \u00fccretler verimlilikle paralel bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

    T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de 1989 Bahar Eylemleri ile emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar toplam gelir i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f, ancak bu kazan\u0131m 1994 krizinin ard\u0131ndan yitirilmi\u015fti. 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda i\u015f\u00e7ilerin toplam gelirden ald\u0131klar\u0131 pay uzunca bir s\u00fcre sabit kalm\u0131\u015f ya da artm\u0131\u015f, en az\u0131ndan gerilememi\u015fti. Ancak bu da i\u015f\u00e7ilerin ger\u00e7ek gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan ziyade i\u015f\u00e7i say\u0131s\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften kaynaklanmaktayd\u0131. 2002 ile 2022 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda istihdam i\u00e7inde \u00fccretli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n oran\u0131 %49,8\u2019den %70,5\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

    2016\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak i\u015f\u00e7ilerin toplam gelirden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay \u00f6nce duraksamaya ba\u015flad\u0131, 2019\u2019dan itibarense radikal bir bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, genel e\u011filimlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00fc\u00e7 temel etkenden bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130lki, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerle azalmas\u0131 ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131. \u0130kincisi, Mart 2020\u2019de ba\u015flayan ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5-2 y\u0131l kadar devam eden Kovid-19 pandemisi. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Eyl\u00fcl 2021\u2019de, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u0131srarla uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel faiz politikas\u0131yla d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyondaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f.<\/p>\n

    Grafik 2\u2019den g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere, 2019-2022 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda -vergiler hari\u00e7- net GSYH i\u00e7inde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demelerinin pay\u0131 %42,3\u2019ten %32,7\u2019ye gerilemi\u015ftir. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sermaye gelirlerinin pay\u0131 %57,7\u2019den %67,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Grafik 2.<\/strong> Net i\u015fletme art\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demelerinin net yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladaki (vergiler hari\u00e7) pay\u0131 (%, 2016-2022)<\/p>\n

    Kaynak:<\/strong> T\u00dc\u0130K, GSYH verileri<\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    Grafik 2<\/em> genel e\u011filimi yans\u0131tmakla birlikte baz\u0131 revizyonlarla daha kesin bir sonuca ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130lgili bile\u015fenlerde -en az- \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

    \u0130lki, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli bir sorundur ve i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %13,7\u2019si kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ancak, ulusal hesaplarda kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015f\u00e7ilere yap\u0131lan \u00f6demeler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demeleri<\/em> ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fil net i\u015fletme art\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/em> i\u00e7inde yer almaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu toplam net i\u015fletme art\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmal\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demelerine dahil edilmelidir.[2]<\/a><\/p>\n

    \u0130kincisi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demeleri i\u00e7erisinde, \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6netici olup kapitalist s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n (ve b\u00fcrokrasinin) bile\u015feni olan, yani emek\u00e7i olmayan, \u201c\u00fccretliler<\/em>\u201din gelirleri de bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu kesimin gelirleri \u00fccret kapsam\u0131nda de\u011fil art\u0131-de\u011ferden al\u0131nan pay olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6demelerinden \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131p net i\u015fletme art\u0131\u011f\u0131 kalemine dahil edilmelidir.[3]<\/a><\/p>\n

    \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ve belki de en \u00f6nemlisi, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u00f6yl\u00fc, esnaf, zanaatkar, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z profesyonel gibi kendi hesab\u0131na \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 net i\u015fletme art\u0131\u011f\u0131na dahil edilmi\u015ftir. Bu kategori, kendi \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131na sahip ve gelirini kendi eme\u011fine dayanarak elde etmektedir. Bu nedenle kapitalist s\u0131n\u0131fa dahil de\u011fildir. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck burjuvazi ya da orta s\u0131n\u0131f olarak tan\u0131mlanabilir. S\u0131n\u0131fsal b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ili\u015fkilerini anlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bunu i\u015fverenlerin k\u00e2r, faiz, rant gibi gelirlerinden ay\u0131rmakta fayda vard\u0131r.[4]<\/a><\/p>\n

    Bu d\u00fczeltmeler sonucunda, GSYH\u2019nin vergi ve amortisman hari\u00e7 s\u0131n\u0131fsal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 Grafik 3<\/em>\u2019ten izlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr:<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Grafik 3.<\/strong> Toplumsal s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n net yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladaki (vergiler hari\u00e7) paylar\u0131 (%, 2016-2022)<\/p>\n

    Kaynak:<\/strong> T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in GSYH verileri, \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u0130statistikleri, Kazan\u00e7 \u0130statistikleri, Gelir Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve Ya\u015fam Ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u0130statistiklerinden hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Grafik 3<\/em>\u2019deki g\u00f6stergelerden AKP iktidar\u0131n\u0131n son 6 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00fc\u00e7 temel sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131labilir. 2019-2022 d\u00f6neminde,<\/p>\n