{"id":1284,"date":"2020-07-04T00:58:55","date_gmt":"2020-07-03T21:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/?p=1284"},"modified":"2023-01-17T17:48:16","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T14:48:16","slug":"guncel-ekonomik-gelismeler-uzerine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2020\/07\/04\/guncel-ekonomik-gelismeler-uzerine\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcncel ekonomik geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerine"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Cemal Do\u011fan<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00fcrkiye, kapitalist d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler kategorisinde yer alan, orta geli\u015fmi\u015flik d\u00fczeyinde, ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke. D\u00fcnya kapitalist ekonomisiyle entegrasyon ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkileri son otuz, \u00f6zellikle de AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri d\u00f6nemi olan son 18 y\u0131lda ivmelenerek yeni \u00f6zellikler kazand\u0131. Ulusal Kurtulu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcd\u00fck ulusal kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, yabanc\u0131 sermaye ve meta hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ve ulusal ekonomiyi koruyan \u00f6nlemlerin son k\u0131r\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 da bu d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tasfiye edildi. T\u00fcm yeralt\u0131 ve yer\u00fcst\u00fc kaynaklar\u0131 emperyalizmin s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z denebilecek d\u00fczeyde s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fcne, ya\u011fma ve talan\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Ekonomik politik t\u00fcm y\u00f6nleriyle toplumsal yap\u0131 bu temelde yeniden \u015fekillendirildi. Yerli ve milli olma demagojilerine kar\u015f\u0131n, Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011funun son y\u00f6neticileri gibi, bir yandan \u00fclkeyi emperyalizme pe\u015fke\u015f \u00e7eken di\u011fer yandan belli ba\u015fl\u0131 emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fmelerden yararlanarak mevziler kazanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Yeni Osmanl\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6netimindeki T\u00fcrkiye, her bak\u0131mdan daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale geldi. Eskilerin sonu biliniyor, yenilerin sonunu da g\u00f6rece\u011fiz, ancak eskilerden \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 olmayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Borsadan bankalar ve sigorta \u015firketlerine kadar t\u00fcm finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve piyasas\u0131nda emperyalist sermayenin pay\u0131 artarken, etkinlik alan\u0131 geni\u015fledi. \u00dclke ekonomisi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan temel \u00f6neme sahip belli ba\u015fl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck i\u015fletmelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ya do\u011frudan emperyalist sermayenin denetiminde ya da teknik bilgi, donan\u0131m, ara girdiler vb. pek \u00e7ok bak\u0131mdan d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Y\u00fcksek teknoloji gerektiren \u00fcretim dallar\u0131n\u0131n ve \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcreten sanayinin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve gerili\u011fiyse \u00fclkemiz ekonomisinin bir ba\u015fka \u00f6zelli\u011fi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

D\u0131\u015f ticaretin toplam\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye’nin gayri safi milli has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n (GSMH) yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130hracat GSMH’nin d\u00f6rtte birine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130hracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri olu\u015fturuyor. Tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, de\u011fer olarak ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde onu kadar ve T\u00fcrkiye, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri de ithal eden bir \u00fclke\u2026 Otomotiv, beyaz e\u015fya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r ve i\u015fletme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pazar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc d\u0131\u015f pazarlar olu\u015fturuyor. Baz\u0131 i\u015fletmeler neredeyse \u00fcretiminin tamam\u0131n\u0131 ya da ezici bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu d\u0131\u015f pazarlar i\u00e7in yap\u0131yor ve bu i\u015fletmelerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de ya yabanc\u0131 sermaye ortakl\u0131 ya da Renault, Toyota gibi tamamen yabanc\u0131 sermayeye ait. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fcretilen 1.461.244 adet motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t arac\u0131n\u0131n 1.252.586\u2019s\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 88\u2019i), 28.538.758 adet beyaz e\u015fyan\u0131n 22.092.563 adedi (yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 77\u2019si) ihra\u00e7 edildi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kapitalist geli\u015fme ve sanayile\u015fmenin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, d\u0131\u015f ticareti a\u00e7\u0131k veren bir \u00fclke olmas\u0131. Turizm ve di\u011fer d\u00f6viz gelirlerine kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fclke b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131; ancak, ba\u015fta kredi, \u00f6zel ve yerel y\u00f6netimler dahil devlet bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131, dolayl\u0131 ve dolays\u0131z yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve di\u011fer bi\u00e7imlerdeki yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri ile kapatabiliyor. Ancak bu, sonsuza kadar ve s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131zca s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00d6zellikle bor\u00e7 ve kredilerin miktar\u0131 ve s\u00fcresini, ba\u015fka etkenlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra alan\u0131n \u00f6deme g\u00fcc\u00fc ve geli\u015fme seyri belirler. \u015eu ya da bu nedenle azami k\u00e2r\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi kesintiye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ya da bu bir risk olarak g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi de kesintiye u\u011frar, aksamalar g\u00fcndeme gelir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fey bor\u00e7lanma ve krediler i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erlidir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Sermayenin hangi bi\u00e7im alt\u0131nda, nereye ve ne kadar akaca\u011f\u0131, onun azami k\u00e2r temelinde kendisini geni\u015fleyerek yeniden \u00fcretmesi ko\u015fullar\u0131na, yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bununla da ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olan ihra\u00e7 edenin stratejik-taktik \u00e7\u0131kar ve tercihlerine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. K\u00e2r oranlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ya da k\u00e2r\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle faiz ve ana para d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri herhangi bir nedenle tehlikeye girdi\u011finde, stratejik-taktik \u00e7\u0131karlar ve tercihler de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, ba\u015fta \u201cs\u0131cak para<\/em>\u201d olarak da niteleneni olmak \u00fczere ihra\u00e7 edilen yabanc\u0131 sermaye h\u0131zla daha g\u00fcvenli limanlara do\u011fru \u00e7ekilir. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde ise, sanayiden tar\u0131ma tar\u0131mdan ula\u015ft\u0131rmaya kadar hemen t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde aksamalar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale gelir. Bu aksama ve t\u0131kanmalar\u0131n boyutlar\u0131, ba\u015fka \u015feylerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra sermayenin bu \u00e7ekili\u015fin h\u0131z\u0131 ve eri\u015fti\u011fi d\u00fczeye ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Yeniden sermaye giri\u015finin ba\u015flamas\u0131 veya artmas\u0131, ancak en y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi temelinde sermayenin yeniden \u00fcretim ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n en asgari d\u00fczeyde de olsa olu\u015fmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Sava\u015f ve di\u011fer politik-askeri geli\u015fmeler ve stratejik-taktik tercih ve \u00e7\u0131karlar da \u00f6zellikle devletler aras\u0131ndaki sermaye hareketlerini etkilemekle birlikte, emperyalist sermaye hareketlerini ba\u015fka etkenlerle birlikte bu belirler.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00dclkeye yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri kapitalist geli\u015fmeyi \u2013ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fmesiyle birlikte olsa bile\u2013 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, geri \u00e7ekilmesi ya da ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131ysa ekonominin geli\u015fme seyrini etkiler. Krizlerin, ekonomideki t\u0131kanma ve aksamalar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rma, derinle\u015ftirme do\u011frultusunda etkide bulunur. Burjuva iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra kendini Marksist olarak niteleyen \u00e7evrelerin olduk\u00e7a geni\u015f bir kesimi de \u00f6nceki krizlerde oldu\u011fu gibi, son krizi de, para-d\u00f6viz krizinin, ticaret ve \u00f6demeler dengesi a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n, yabanc\u0131 sermaye hareketleri ve ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve geri \u00e7ekilmesinin bir sonucu olarak ele al\u0131yor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00d6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki son geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirirken; krizi yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin azalmas\u0131 ve ba\u015fta \u201cs\u0131cak para<\/em>\u201d olan\u0131 olmak \u00fczere yabanc\u0131 sermayenin \u00e7ekilmesiyle, para politikalar\u0131 ve krizleriyle a\u00e7\u0131klayanlar sorunu do\u011fru ve ger\u00e7ek hayatta olup bitene uygun bir bi\u00e7imde ele alm\u0131yor, sebep ve sonu\u00e7lar aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi tersy\u00fcz ediyorlar. Durgunluk ya da kriz, yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7ekildi\u011fi ya da giri\u015fleri azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil aksine ihra\u00e7 edilen sermaye ve getirilerinin riske girmesine yol a\u00e7an (k\u00e2rlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle ana para ve faizlerinin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc riske sokan) t\u0131kanma ve aksamalar, daha y\u00fcksek ve g\u00fcvenli k\u00e2rlar elde edebilece\u011fi se\u00e7enekler vb. g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde yabanc\u0131 sermaye, en ba\u015fta da \u201cs\u0131cak para<\/em>\u201d bi\u00e7iminde olan\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmektedir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u0130zlenen ya da izlenecek ekonomi politikalar\u0131 \u2013ve onun bir unsuru olarak para politikalar\u0131\u2013 genel olarak toplumsal geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecini, \u00f6zel olarak da krizin olu\u015fum ve geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecini elbette etkiler. Ancak, ekonominin geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecini h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin izledi\u011fi ekonomi politikalar de\u011fil, aksine h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin izledi\u011fi ve izleyece\u011fi ekonomi-politikalar\u0131, son tahlilde, temsilcisi oldu\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda ekonominin geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci ve bu geli\u015fmeyi y\u00f6neten kapitalizmin yasalar\u0131 belirler. Burjuvazinin farkl\u0131 kesimleri ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin izledi\u011fi ya da izlenmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ekonomi-politikalar, \u00f6zel olarak da aralar\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar bu temelde \u015fekillenir. Egemen s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitli kliklerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ezen ve ezilen, s\u00f6m\u00fcren ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131flar aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadeleler ve g\u00fc\u00e7ler ili\u015fkisi de izlenecek ekonomi politikalar \u00fczerinde etkide bulunur. Ancak emperyalizm ve tekellerin egemenli\u011fi y\u0131k\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a onlar\u0131n temel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ayk\u0131r\u0131 bir ekonomi politika izlenemeyece\u011fi gibi, mevcut ekonomik sistem i\u00e7inde ve onun geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin temel yasalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeyen onlarla tamamen kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k i\u00e7inde olma bir yana \u015fu ya da bu d\u00fczeyde \u00e7eli\u015fen farkl\u0131 ekonomi politikalar\u0131 uygulama giri\u015fimleri de tam bir iflas ve h\u00fcsranla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r. \u201c21. y\u00fczy\u0131l sosyalizmi<\/em>\u201d uygulamalar\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bunun en yak\u0131n \u00f6rnekleridir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00d6zellikle finans kapitalin egemenli\u011fi \u00e7a\u011f\u0131nda ve bu nedenden dolay\u0131, krizler, pazarlarla \u00fcretimin uyumsuz b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretim temelinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p geli\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, genellikle mali krizler olarak, borsa ve para krizleri bi\u00e7iminde u\u00e7 vermektedir.[1]<\/a> Bu durum, burjuva iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u00e7evreleri taraf\u0131ndan krizin ger\u00e7ek temelini has\u0131ralt\u0131 etmek, onun, izlenen ekonomi politikalar\u0131, mali ve para politikalar\u0131 vb. temelinde geli\u015fti\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrmek, kapitalist sistemi aklamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Son krizin karakteristik \u00f6zelliklerinden biri, sanayideki krizin bir \u00f6demeler dengesi ve mali kriz olarak de\u011fil, ama para krizinden \u00f6nce patlamas\u0131 ve geli\u015fmesidir. Krizin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretim kaynakl\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve geli\u015fti\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k ve net bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmas\u0131, bunu g\u00f6lgeleyecek bi\u00e7imde \u00f6ncelikle mali bir kriz vb. bi\u00e7iminde u\u00e7 vermemesidir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00fcm ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kapitalist \u00fclkeler gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de temel \u00fcretim ve dola\u015f\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131, \u00fclkenin yeralt\u0131 ve yer\u00fcst\u00fc kaynaklar\u0131 genel olarak sermayenin en ba\u015fta da emperyalist ve i\u015fbirlik\u00e7i yerli tekellerin denetimi alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. \u00dcretimin giderek daha b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc kar i\u00e7in, en y\u00fcksek kar\u0131 elde etme amac\u0131yla ve i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f pazarlar i\u00e7in yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Devrevi geli\u015fme, onun bir evresi olarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretim ve krizler bu temelde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale gelmektedir. Ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkileri, \u00fclkenin yer alt\u0131 ve yer \u00fcst\u00fc kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n emperyalistler taraf\u0131ndan ya\u011fmalanmas\u0131 ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, di\u011fer alanlarda oldu\u011fu gibi \u00fclke ekonomisinin geli\u015fmesini de etkilemekte, e\u015fit olmayan dengesiz geli\u015fmeyi, mali, s\u0131nai, tar\u0131m gibi ekonominin t\u00fcm belli ba\u015fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri ve unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n ve aralar\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015fme seyrinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, pazarlar\u0131n ve \u00fcretimin uyumlu bir bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcmemesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da derinle\u015ftirmekte, krizin tahrip edici sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

B\u00dcY\u00dcME ORANLARINDA GENEL B\u0130R D\u00dc\u015eME<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

D\u00fcnya kapitalist ekonomisinin, sermaye ve metalar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zel olarak da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik ili\u015fkilerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00fclkeler ve ekonomik birliklerin geli\u015fme seyri, \u00fclkemiz ekonomisinin geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecini de do\u011frudan ve her zamankinden daha fazla etkiliyor. Bu ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmadan, \u00fclkemiz ekonomisinin geli\u015fme seyri ve olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler de do\u011fru tahlil edilemez ve gerekli sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lamaz. Ancak bundan d\u00fcnya kapitalist ekonomisinin geli\u015fme seyrinin T\u00fcrkiye ve di\u011fer ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkeler ekonomilerinin geli\u015fme seyrini belirleyen tek etken oldu\u011fu sonucu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lamaz ve aralar\u0131nda bire bir mekanik bir ili\u015fki kurulamaz. Kapitalist d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken de \u015fu ya da bu \u00fclke krize girebilir ve ge\u00e7ici s\u00fcreler i\u00e7in de olsa, ekonomisi, d\u00fcnya ekonomisiyle farkl\u0131la\u015fan bir seyir izleyebilir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin son y\u0131llardaki geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin \u00e7ok \u015fey s\u00f6ylenebilir ve s\u0131ralanabilir. Bunlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde en \u00f6nemlilerinden biri; hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz, ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde ba\u015fta sanayi olmak \u00fczere, toplam toplumsal \u00fcretim ve kapitalist pazar\u0131n geli\u015fmesine ili\u015fkin veriler bunu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.6 olan toplam d\u00fcnya sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.1\u2019e, 2019\u2019da %0.8\u2019e geriledi. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son iki \u00e7eyre\u011fi ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyreklere g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, s\u0131ras\u0131yla; y\u00fczde -0.1, y\u00fczde 0.3 ve y\u00fczde -4.2. Pandeminin de \u2013\u00f6zellikle \u00c7in \u00fczerindeki\u2013 etkisiyle 2020 birinci \u00e7eyrekte sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde ve do\u011frudan sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u00f6n s\u0131rada olan ba\u015fta Almanya olmak \u00fczere Euro b\u00f6lgesinin toplam sanayi \u00fcretiminin; son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, s\u0131ras\u0131yla; y\u00fczde 3.1, y\u00fczde 0.9 ve y\u00fczde -1,5. Son \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 da, s\u0131ras\u0131yla; y\u00fczde-0.7, y\u00fczde -1.0 ve y\u00fczde -3.6. Bu rakamlar\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik ili\u015fkilerinde en a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yere sahip Euro b\u00f6lgesinin sanayi \u00fcretiminde s\u00fcrekli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, son \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve end\u00fcstriyel-ticari bir kriz\u2026 Sanayi \u00fcretiminin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Euro b\u00f6lgesinin ithalat\u0131 da son \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte daralmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansal ili\u015fkileri ve ticaretinde \u00f6nemli bir yeri olan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi ABD\u2019de ise, son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla; y\u00fczde 2.3, y\u00fczde 3.9 ve y\u00fczde 0.9. Son \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ise \u015f\u00f6yle: y\u00fczde 0.3, 0.1 ve -1.8 Y\u00f6netici kli\u011fi, \u00c7in\u2019deki pandemi ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dahil ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki yava\u015flamay\u0131 f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirerek atak yapma hesaplar\u0131 i\u00e7inde olan ABD\u2019nin sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ekonomisinde, son y\u0131llar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7eyreklik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019de yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 ile birlikte bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha da artt\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

FED\u2019in 2019\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 durdurmas\u0131 ve akabinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve pandemiyi de kullanarak piyasaya trilyonlarca dolar s\u00fcrmesinin nedenlerinden biri, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, ABD ekonomisi ve \u00f6zellikle de sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimindeki gerileme ve onu izleyen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, al\u0131nan korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlere kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00fcretimin pazarlardan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri. Bilindi\u011fi gibi, dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak uluslararas\u0131 e\u015fde\u011fer para birimi olma i\u015flevinin daha da erozyona u\u011framas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek vb. nedenlerle, FED, 2016\u2019dan itibaren faizleri artt\u0131rmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00c7in, son y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik ili\u015fkilerinin h\u0131zla geli\u015fti\u011fi \u00fclkelerden biri ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi. \u00c7in, bir s\u00fcredir, mali dengeleri bozan ve k\u00f6p\u00fcklerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine de yol a\u00e7an, i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 izliyor. Ancak, \u00c7in ekonomisinin \u00f6zel olarak da sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, hala di\u011fer belli ba\u015fl\u0131 emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7lerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyretse de, geriliyor. 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 6.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019e, 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 5.7\u2019ye geriledi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise ancak y\u00fczde 0.5 ve y\u00fczde 2.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in sanayi \u00fcretimi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, pandeminin de etkisiyle, y\u00fczde -12.2 oran\u0131nda darald\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1\u2019e gerileyen Japon sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir yana, y\u00fczde -2.6 darald\u0131. 2019 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren son \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 da, s\u0131ras\u0131yla, y\u00fczde -1.0, y\u00fczde -3.6 ve y\u00fczde 0.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. (Japonya sanayi \u00fcretiminin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi tamamen anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ve bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte %-3.6 olan oranla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.)<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.8 olan d\u00fcnya ticaret hacmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019e, 2019 da ise y\u00fczde -0.3\u2019e (negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme, mutlak daralma) geriledi. Son 3 \u00e7eyrek ise, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re bu oranlar \u015f\u00f6yle: 2019 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyreklerde y\u00fczde 0.7 ve y\u00fczde -0.5. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise y\u00fczde -2.5. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi etkileyen bir fakt\u00f6r \u00f6zelli\u011fi kazanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da b\u00f6yle bir fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ticaret hacmi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir yana, daral\u0131yor. Pandemiden \u00f6nce ba\u015flayan negatife do\u011fru bir geli\u015fme seyri ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Salg\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte bu daralma daha da art\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya ticaret hacmi, kapitalist d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fme seyrini her ko\u015fulda bire bir yans\u0131tm\u0131yor, ama d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde ticari ili\u015fkilerde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe yol a\u00e7acak korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fme seyrini yans\u0131tan en \u00f6nemli verilerden biridir. ABD taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131lan ve ba\u015fta ABD ve \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere \u00fclkeler ve ekonomik b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131ndaki ticari ili\u015fkilerde daha \u00e7ok ba\u015fvurulan korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlere kar\u015f\u0131n, bu, hen\u00fcz d\u00fcnya ticaretinde k\u00f6kl\u00fc y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine yol a\u00e7acak d\u00fczeye ula\u015fmad\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Veriler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n pandemiden \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn pandeminin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda da devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6stermekteydi. Pandemi ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha da derinle\u015ftiren yeni bir etken ya da geli\u015fme oldu. Pandemiden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7an etken ve birikimler, pandemi s\u00fcrecinde zay\u0131flamak bir yana geli\u015fmeye devam etti.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda; ABD, \u0130ngiltere, \u0130sve\u00e7, Hollanda gibi \u00fclkelerde, pandeminin yay\u0131lmas\u0131 kay\u0131ts\u0131zca izlenir ve hi\u00e7bir \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmazken, Almanya ve Avusturya gibi bir \u00e7ok \u00fclkede ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nd\u0131. \u00c7in, salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte daha kat\u0131 \u00f6nlemler alan bir \u00fclke oldu. Ancak aralar\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar olmakla birlikte, salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek ve tahrip edici sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 en aza indirmek i\u00e7in t\u00fcm kaynaklar ve ara\u00e7lar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irme temelinde gerekli \u00f6nlemler hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede al\u0131nmad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, salg\u0131n ve al\u0131nan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6nlemler t\u00fcm \u00fclke ekonomilerini farkl\u0131 d\u00fczeylerde etkiledi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Pandemi bir \u00e7ok \u00fclkede gerilerken, yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in al\u0131nan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6nlemler de bir s\u00fcredir ad\u0131m ad\u0131m kald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak pandemi ve al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerin de etkisiyle sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 aylara g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor ve a\u00e7acak. Fakat s\u00fcre\u00e7 ve veriler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan neden oldu\u011fu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle ortadan kalkmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6te yandan, pandeminin yeniden yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek ve kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131na sa\u011flayacak bir geli\u015fme (a\u015f\u0131, ila\u00e7 ya da Covid-19 vir\u00fcs\u00fcnde salg\u0131na yol a\u00e7mayacak bir mutasyon vb.) olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, al\u0131nan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin de kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n yeniden parlamas\u0131 ve yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 devam ediyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn pandeminin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerle devam etmesi, d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde; i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131na, al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn gerilemesine, yoksullu\u011fun ve gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin derinle\u015fmesi ve yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131na, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta i\u015fletmeler aras\u0131nda iflaslar ve kapanmalar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir h\u0131z ve oranda artmas\u0131na neden oldu. D\u00fcnya i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclen emek\u00e7i kitleler, kendi \u00f6z tecr\u00fcbeleriyle, art\u0131-de\u011fer \u00fcrettikleri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir de\u011ferlerinin oldu\u011funu bir kez daha g\u00f6rd\u00fcler. Pandemi s\u00fcrecinde, toplumsal e\u015fitsizlikler derinle\u015firken, daha a\u00e7\u0131k ve net g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geldi. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i ve emek\u00e7iler aras\u0131nda ho\u015fnutsuzluk, yeni aray\u0131\u015flar ve m\u00fccadele e\u011filimleri geli\u015fti. George Floyd\u2019un \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, h\u0131zla di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f emperyalist \u00fclkelere do\u011fru yay\u0131lan kitlesel m\u00fccadelelerin geli\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Pandeminin ve ba\u015fta sanayi \u00fcretimi olmak \u00fczere ekonominin t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn y\u00fcklerini, tekeller ve mali sermaye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en aza indirmek i\u00e7in; ABD\u2019den \u00c7in\u2019e, Euro b\u00f6lgesinden Rusya ve Japonya\u2019ya kadar hemen t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclen trilyonlarca dolar, finans kapitalin, tekellerin kasalar\u0131na aktar\u0131ld\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisine hakim olan belli ba\u015fl\u0131 kapitalist \u00fclkelerde yat\u0131r\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015femeyen, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 kendini geni\u015fleterek yeniden \u00fcretemeyen ya da bu s\u00fcrecin kesintilerle ilerleyebildi\u011fi, para-sermaye bi\u00e7iminde varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcren sermaye ve borsalardaki k\u00f6p\u00fck ve balonlar b\u00fcy\u00fcr, mali dengesizlikler derinle\u015firken, en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc paralar\u0131n bile temsil etti\u011fi de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015fmektedir. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131m m\u00fccadelesi \u015fiddetlenirken, korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlere daha \u00e7ok ba\u015fvurma, silahlanma ve sava\u015f harcamalar\u0131ysa art\u0131yor. T\u00fcm bunlar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de ekonomik, politik ve her alanda etkileyecek olan \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi, \u00fclkemizi krize s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen \u00e7eli\u015fmeleri, aksama ve t\u0131kanmalar\u0131 derinle\u015ftirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde etkide bulunan bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE<\/strong>\u2019<\/strong>N\u0130N A\u011eIRLA\u015eAN KR\u0130Z\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Salg\u0131n, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeden farkl\u0131 olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de; krizin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, halk\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n giderek k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fi, kitleler aras\u0131nda gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin, ho\u015fnutsuzluk ve \u00f6fkenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fclkeyi y\u00f6neten klik ve partiler ittifak\u0131n\u0131n kitle deste\u011finin zay\u0131flamaya devam etti\u011fi, ancak tek adam y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda gerici-fa\u015fist bir rejim in\u015fa etme giri\u015fimleri ve buna y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015farak s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ko\u015fullarda g\u00fcndeme geldi. Bu nedenle gerek i\u015f\u00e7iler ve emek\u00e7i kitleler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan gerekse ekonomik-politik t\u00fcm y\u00f6nleriyle toplumsal geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci bak\u0131m\u0131ndan bir \u00e7ok \u00fclkeden daha a\u011f\u0131r sonu\u00e7lara ve geli\u015fmelere yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Tek adam\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu y\u00f6netici klik, di\u011fer alanlarda oldu\u011fu gibi, ekonominin geli\u015fme seyrine ili\u015fkin olarak da ger\u00e7eklerin ters-y\u00fcz edilmesine dayanan bir propaganda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor. Bunun i\u00e7in ekonominin geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin verileri \u00e7arp\u0131tman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, bu verileri haz\u0131rlayan istatistik kurumuna (T\u00dc\u0130K) de\u011fi\u015fik zamanlarda bir\u00e7ok kez m\u00fcdahale edildi. \u0130statistikleri haz\u0131rlama ve de\u011ferlendirme y\u00f6ntemleri gibi, her kademede pek \u00e7ok y\u00f6netici ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirildi. Sonuncusu 22 May\u0131s\u2019ta olmak \u00fczere son bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde iki ba\u015fkan ve iki ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131yla Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda kurumun 10 m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc g\u00f6revden al\u0131nd\u0131 ve yerlerine yeni atamalar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Son atamalar\u0131n ilk sonucu, pandemi s\u00fcrecinde milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n i\u015f\u00e7i i\u015fsizler ordusuna kat\u0131l\u0131rken, TU\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi oldu. Ancak ilk basamak verileri haz\u0131rlayan kurum ve \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmeler (meslek odalar\u0131 ve \u00f6rg\u00fctleri, farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki kapitalistlerin birlikleri, merkezi ve yerel d\u00fczeyde bu alana ili\u015fkin devletin alt kurumlar\u0131 vb.), tam bir denetim alt\u0131na al\u0131namad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131nmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in do\u011fru bilgi ve verilere ula\u015fma olana\u011f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle ortadan kalkmad\u0131. Bu, ayn\u0131 zamanda verilerin \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 ve buna y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahaleleri de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Yukarda belirtilen nedenlerden dolay\u0131 ekonominin geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci ele al\u0131n\u0131rken, T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ba\u015fka kaynaklara da ba\u015fvurulacak.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

E\u015fit olmayan dengesiz geli\u015fme kapitalist geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca yasalar\u0131ndan biridir. Ancak, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, son y\u0131llarda, bu yasan\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra mevsimsel ve takvimsel etkenlerin neden oldu\u011fu dalgalanmalar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgal\u0131 ve istikrars\u0131z bir geli\u015fme g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcm bu neden ve etkenler ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u0131llar\u0131 gibi, darald\u0131\u011f\u0131, krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fi y\u0131llar i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Son y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fi kriz de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin izledi\u011fi ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle, \u00f6zellikle sanayi \u00fcretiminde ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 ve son derece istikrars\u0131z bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olarak geli\u015fiyor. Baz\u0131 aylarda veya \u00e7eyreklik d\u00f6nemlerde sanayinin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine ya da bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re ge\u00e7ici ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ger\u00e7ek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tam yans\u0131tmayan GSMH\u2019a ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri, TL-Dolar paritesindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in de olsa durmas\u0131\/h\u0131z kesmesi vb. geli\u015fmeler; b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131, d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n p\u00fcsk\u00fcrt\u00fclmesi ve dar bo\u011fazlardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olarak yans\u0131t\u0131l\u0131p propaganda ediliyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2010\u2019lu y\u0131llarda d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lar \u00fclke ekonomisinin geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci ve potansiyeli bak\u0131m\u0131ndan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir d\u00fczeye do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken, ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kapitalist geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde derinle\u015fen e\u015fit olmayan, dengesiz geli\u015fmenin t\u00fcm sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 giderek daha \u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyordu. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle son \u00e7eyre\u011finde; \u00fcretimin pazarlardan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 geni\u015flemesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde stoklar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ve kredi piyasas\u0131ndan perakende ve toptan ticarete kadar hemen t\u00fcm alanlarda aksamalar ve t\u0131kanmalara, nakit para darl\u0131\u011f\u0131na, ba\u015fta k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta olanlar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u015firket ve i\u015fletmenin iflas\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine gelmesine yol a\u00e7an bir s\u00fcrece girmi\u015fti. Di\u011fer etkenlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ili\u015fkilerin gerilmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Rusya\u2019ya yap\u0131lan ihracat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi tar\u0131m\u0131 da etkilemi\u015fti. Farkl\u0131 \u00fcretim dallar\u0131 ve \u00fcretimle pazarlar aras\u0131nda e\u015fit olmayan dengesiz geli\u015fme; tar\u0131mda da baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde fazla \u00fcretimi, baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde de ithalat\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lacak d\u00fczeyde \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri, MHP deste\u011finde tek adam tek parti y\u00f6netimini kurma ve bunun i\u00e7in anayasa referandumu, cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, genel ve yerel se\u00e7imlerinin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece krizle girmemeyi de g\u00f6zeten bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 izlemeye y\u00f6neldi. \u00dclkenin kullan\u0131labilecek t\u00fcm kaynaklar\u0131yla olanaklar\u0131 mali dengeleri de daha da bozacak pervas\u0131z bir tutumla harekete ge\u00e7irildi ve bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede bilinen paketler ard\u0131 ard\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131klanarak uygulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. \u0130zlenen ekonomi politikas\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve uygulanan paketlerin baz\u0131 unsur ve y\u00f6nleriyle mali dengelerin daha da bozulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131, ba\u015fta uluslararas\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere tekelci burjuvazinin \u00e7e\u015fitli kesimleri ve burjuva iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan da dile getirildi. \u0130flaslar\u0131 ertelemeye, bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in de olsa i\u00e7 pazar\u0131n daralmas\u0131n\u0131 vergi iadeleri, kredi geni\u015flemesi ve di\u011fer te\u015fviklerle engellemeye ve ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik paketlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerin d\u00fczelmesi ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 gibi etkenlere de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekonomi, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girdi. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sanayi \u00fcretimi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Ancak, t\u00fcm bu \u00f6nlemler ve izlenen ekonomi politikas\u0131, 2018\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015ferek, y\u00fczde 1.1\u2019e gerilemesini ve \u00fclkenin krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini engelleyemedi\u011fi gibi, mali dengeleri daha da bozarak, mali bir krizin unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2018, ayn\u0131 zamanda, TL\u2019nin alt\u0131n ve ba\u015fta dolar olmak \u00fczere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plara u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 denebilecek bir d\u00fczeyde dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve para-d\u00f6viz krizi olarak da nitelenen para krizinin patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l oldu. Bu krizi h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131p a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131ran etkenlerden biri de Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin izledi\u011fi ekonomi-politika ve uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 paketlerdi. ABD ile ili\u015fkilerdeki gerilim ve spek\u00fclatif giri\u015fimlere de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda dolar-TL paritesi 7 TL\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131. ABD ile ili\u015fkilerde gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, piyasaya b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarlarda d\u00f6viz s\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve faizlerin y\u00fckseltilmesiyle birlikte dolar-TL paritesi 5.30-5.50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekilebildi ve sonraki y\u0131lda da bir s\u00fcre bu aral\u0131kta seyretti. Bu, Erdo\u011fan ve y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan \u201cd\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n p\u00fcsk\u00fcrt\u00fclmesi<\/em>\u201d ve \u201cyeni bir zafer<\/em>\u201d olarak propaganda edildi. Oysa ortada ne zafer ne de bir ba\u015far\u0131 vard\u0131. Tek adam ve y\u00f6netimi, Trump ve ABD y\u00f6netimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda boyun e\u011fmi\u015f, bu da yetmezmi\u015f gibi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f ve tahkir edilmi\u015fti. Aksi y\u00f6ndeki t\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131klamalara kar\u015f\u0131n faizler y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f, d\u00f6viz rezervleri milyarlarca dolar erimi\u015f, \u00fcstelik TL y\u0131l\u0131n toplam\u0131nda dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 40\u2019a yak\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. Ancak FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nce durdurmas\u0131, sonra da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te, TL, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, 2019 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren tekrar de\u011fer kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. EVDS\u2019nin verilerine g\u00f6re, 2019\u2019un ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ortalama 5.73 TL olan dolar, 2020\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 6.45 TL oldu.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

D\u00fcnya toplam sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ticaret hacminin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, bunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da etkiledi\u011fi 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise, Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin \u201ckrizden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girdik<\/em>\u201d demagojisine kar\u015f\u0131n, sanayi \u00fcretimi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir yana, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.6 oran\u0131nda darald\u0131. Bu daralma 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde olmakla birlikte, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. Ancak, bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda, 2008 ve 2009 kriz y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde -0.56 ve -9.88 oran\u0131ndaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeden sonraki ilk daralma.[2]<\/sup><\/a> Rakamlar, genel olarak ekonominin, \u00f6zel olarak da sanayi \u00fcretiminin geli\u015fme e\u011filimini g\u00f6stermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli: y\u00fczde 9\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden, \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 1,2\u2019ye, sonra y\u00fczde -0.6\u2019ya do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

TU\u0130K\u2019in verilerine bak\u0131lacak olursa, sanayi \u00fcretimi, korona salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz ekonominin geli\u015fme seyrini etkileyecek sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131 ve \u00e7eyre\u011finde, \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de sanayi \u00fcretiminin \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, saray y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan \u201cekonominin istikrarl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girmesi<\/em>\u201d olarak yans\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re sanayi \u00fcretimi \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerine g\u00f6re artm\u0131\u015f olsa bile, di\u011fer temel g\u00f6stergelerle birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, istikrarl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermiyor. TU\u0130K\u2019in verilerinde; bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, sanayi \u00fcretimi, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekle birlikte, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fin hem de 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminin alt\u0131nda seyrediyor.<\/strong>[3]<\/sup><\/a> Toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 da 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda azalmaya devam etti. Sorunun bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli yan\u0131 da ba\u015fka etkenleri de olmakla birlikte, bu \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/em>\u201dnin kredi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden kaynaklan\u0131yor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcketici kredileri 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle son aylar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flarla yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 16 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme, piyasaya y\u00fcksek miktarlarda para s\u00fcrme e\u015fli\u011finde i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u0131lda da devam etti. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131 sonundan bu y\u0131l\u0131n haziran ay\u0131na kadar toplam banka kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 17. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve kredi verme ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n esnekle\u015ftirilmesi, hafifletilmesi i\u00e7in tam bir denetim alt\u0131ndaki devlet bankalar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irildi. \u00d6zel bankalar te\u015fviklerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131yla kredi verme ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 hafifletmeye ve faizleri indirmeye zorland\u0131. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ekonominin geli\u015fme seyri \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonraki aylardaysa, ba\u015fta sanayi ve ticaret olmak \u00fczere hemen t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00dclke ekonomisinin geli\u015fme seyrini g\u00f6steren verilerden biri de sanayinin temel bir girdisi ve enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olan elektrik \u00fcretimi ve t\u00fcketimidir. Elektrik t\u00fcketimi sanayi ve ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re 5.79 artarken, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 0.76\u2019ya, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde -0.59\u2019a geriledi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n Ekim ay\u0131ndan itibaren tekrar artmaya ba\u015flayan elektrik t\u00fcketimi sanayi \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015fa paralel olarak, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de devam etti. Ancak elektrik t\u00fcketimi sonraki aylarda tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Elektrik \u00fcretimindeyse, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.94 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, 2018 ve 2019 y\u0131llar\u0131nda, s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 0.77 ve y\u00fczde -0.60\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Kapitalist \u00fcretim ko\u015fullar\u0131nda \u00fcretim k\u00e2r amac\u0131yla ve pazar i\u00e7in yap\u0131l\u0131r. K\u00e2r, ancak ve ancak metan\u0131n dola\u015f\u0131m s\u00fcrecini tamamlamas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Bu olmad\u0131k\u00e7a k\u00e2r ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez ve \u00fcretim kesintiye u\u011frar. Ancak \u00fcretimin ve pazar\u0131n geli\u015fmesini belirleyen etken ve yasalar farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, bunlar kapitalizm ko\u015fullar\u0131nda uyumlu geli\u015fmez. \u00dcretimin pazarlardan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak toplumun ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak \u2013\u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretimin amac\u0131 toplumun ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak de\u011fil, k\u00e2rd\u0131r, en y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rd\u0131r\u2013, fazla \u00fcretime, stoklar\u0131n birikmesine, \u00fcretimin \u015fu ya da bu d\u00fczeyde aksamas\u0131na ve kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bunu pazar\u0131n daha da daralmas\u0131 izler.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Tarih sahnesine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 takiben birle\u015fmi\u015f bir d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131 yaratan kapitalizmde, i\u00e7 pazar, d\u0131\u015f pazarlarla birlikte geli\u015fir, bu ikisi birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r ve bir b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015ftururlar. Bu, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da b\u00f6yledir ve d\u0131\u015f pazar gibi i\u00e7 pazar da ba\u015fta \u00fcretimin birinci ve ikinci kesimleri (\u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcreten kesimle t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcreten kesim) olmak \u00fczere, ekonominin \u00e7e\u015fitli dallar\u0131, kapitalist i\u015fletmeler ve sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki meta al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 olarak birbirleriyle de\u011fi\u015fime giren iki temel unsurdan, \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fur. Perakende ticaret hacmine ili\u015fkin veriler, i\u00e7 pazar\u0131n bir kesimini olu\u015fturan t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 pazar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fme seyrini bire bir olmasa da yans\u0131tan verilerden biridir. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in verilerinde; bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 5.7 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen perakende ticaret hacmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.5\u2019e, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki geni\u015flemeye kar\u015f\u0131n 2019\u2019da ise y\u00fczde -0.1 geriledi. \u00d6nceki y\u0131llarda oldu\u011fu gibi, perakende ticaret hacmi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam etti ve gene T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in verilerine g\u00f6re pandeminin etkisini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi Nisan ay\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re, y\u00fczde -21 civar\u0131nda darald\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in enflasyon oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla ger\u00e7ek hayattaki enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki fark ve emek\u00e7ilerin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 pazar\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n T\u00dc\u0130K verilerinden daha fazla oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Farkl\u0131 alanlardaki kapitalist i\u015fletmeler ve \u015firketlerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu birlik, sendika, dernek gibi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 veriler, kapitalist pazar\u0131n di\u011fer bir bile\u015feni olan kapitalist i\u015fletmeler ve sanayinin \u00e7e\u015fitli sekt\u00f6rleri aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin de bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde b\u00fcy\u00fcme bir yana, darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6rne\u011fin ba\u015fta \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcreten kesimi olmak \u00fczere sanayinin \u00f6nemli bir girdisi ve unsuru olan nihai mamul \u00e7elik t\u00fcketimi, demir-\u00e7elik birli\u011finin verilerine g\u00f6re, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde -15, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde -15.6 darald\u0131. \u00c7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde nihai mamul t\u00fcketimi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 42,3 oran\u0131nda art\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, sanayinin toplam\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeyine dahi ula\u015famad\u0131. Yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ihracat miktar itibariyle y\u00fczde 11,6 azal\u0131rken i\u00e7 talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithalat y\u00fczde 33,3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yerli \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, toplam pazar ayn\u0131 oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi. Salg\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte ise, ge\u00e7ici bir \u00f6zellik ta\u015f\u0131yan bu art\u0131\u015f da sona erdi ve tekrar daralma ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7elik \u00fcretimi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re artmakla birlikte, miktar olarak, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren ise, pandeminin de etkisiyle tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Pazar\u0131n di\u011fer bir bile\u015feni olan ihracat, 2015 ve 2016 y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 10 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130hracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7\u2019ye, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici verilerine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye geriledi. Bu e\u011filim, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda da devam etti. Pandeminin d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011findeki etkilerinin a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte durum daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti ve Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, otomobil dahil motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda i\u00e7 pazar, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara g\u00f6re, 2018 ve 2019\u2019da, s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde -35,0 ve -23, ihracat ise y\u00fczde -1,0 ve -5 oran\u0131nda darald\u0131.[4]<\/sup><\/a> \u0130\u00e7 pazar, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 41.3 geni\u015flemesine kar\u015f\u0131n; miktar olarak, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, 2018 bir yana, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llar\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminin bile alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, y\u00fcksek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n, as\u0131l olarak, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yan\u0131nda, ta\u015f\u0131t al\u0131m kredilerinin kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden kaynaklan\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Toplam \u00fcretim, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde -5,6 oran\u0131nda azalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n; toplam stok, azalmak bir yana, 5.250 adet artt\u0131. Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda ise, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f pazarlarla birlikte \u00fcretim de darald\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00fcrkiye, beyaz e\u015fya \u00fcretimde, son y\u0131llardaki 28 milyon adedi a\u015fan \u00fcretimiyle, Avrupa\u2019da birinci, d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde ise \u00c7in\u2019den sonra ikinci s\u0131rada bulunuyor. 2018\u2019de beyaz e\u015fyada i\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar y\u00fczde 17 azal\u0131rken, d\u0131\u015f sat\u0131m\u0131n y\u00fczde 6 artmas\u0131 sonucu, toplam pazar, y\u00fczde 1 oran\u0131nda darald\u0131. 2019\u2019da, i\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 6.4, d\u0131\u015fsat\u0131m\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 azalmas\u0131 sonucu, toplam pazar y\u00fczde 2 darald\u0131.[5]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda, tekstil y\u00fczde 2.2, haz\u0131r giyim sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 6.9 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. T\u00fcm te\u015fviklere kar\u015f\u0131n in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde stoklar eritilemedi ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonuyla bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r ge\u00e7ici de olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye devam etti. 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde -2,1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde -8,6 darald\u0131. Sekt\u00f6r, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde -1.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130n\u015faat malzemeleri sanayi 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde -13 darald\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Ziraat Odalar\u0131 Birli\u011fi Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam bitkisel \u00fcretim y\u00fczde 1.8 k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 et \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 3.4 artarken, tavuk eti \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 1.4 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131. Ancak \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda oldu\u011fu gibi, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda da patates, kuru so\u011fan, kabak gibi 11 \u00fcr\u00fcnde fazla \u00fcretim ve bundan kaynakl\u0131 olarak \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcler oldu. Son iki y\u0131lda tar\u0131m makinalar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemlilerinden biri olan trakt\u00f6rde i\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar geriledi: 2017\u2019de 72.909 olan i\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar, 2018\u2019de 48.356\u2019ya, 2019\u2019da da 26.297\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Trakt\u00f6r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki bu gerilemeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, trakt\u00f6r \u00fcretimi de azald\u0131. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 53.841 adet olan trakt\u00f6r \u00fcretimi, 2018\u2019de 37.686\u2019ya, 2019\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 36.6 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ferek 23.899 adete geriledi. Kriz, tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u00e7 pazar\u0131n\u0131 da etkiledi. Tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcn ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1.1 artmas\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131n y\u00fczde 4.1 azalmas\u0131, i\u00e7 pazardaki daralman\u0131n yola\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayb\u0131 k\u0131smen de olsa telafi etti.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00fcm veriler, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve i\u00e7 pazarda 2019 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyreklerinde, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerine g\u00f6re g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde stoklar\u0131n gerilemesi ya da d\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artmas\u0131 gibi etkenlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ve daha \u00e7ok da yukarda belirtilen ko\u015fullarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen faizlerdeki indirim ve kredi geni\u015flemesinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6te yandan, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u0131lda da ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

MAL\u0130 SIKI\u015eMI\u015eLIK KISKACINDA G\u00dcN\u00dc KURTARMA \u00c7ABASI<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz mali sekt\u00f6r\u00fc tamamen bir yana itmiyor, mali sekt\u00f6rdeki geli\u015fmeleri de g\u00f6zeten bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 izliyorlard\u0131. Ancak, se\u00e7imlere kadar \u00f6ncelik, iflaslar\u0131n ve \u00fcretimdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn engellenmesi, i\u00e7 pazar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in de olsa canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla eski s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 terk edilerek faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve piyasaya para pompalanmas\u0131 oldu. Se\u00e7imlerin atlat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra, Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini ve mali bir krizin patlamas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ertelenen zamlar uygulamaya konulurken, \u00fccretlerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyonun \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda ve en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tutmaya, ba\u015fta e\u011fitim ve sa\u011fl\u0131k olmak \u00fczere kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smaya y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar durma noktas\u0131na \u00e7ekilirken, vergileri artt\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik d\u00fczenlemeler g\u00fcndeme getirildi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Son y\u0131llarda Erdo\u011fan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin izledi\u011fi ekonomi politikalar\u0131n da etkisiyle\u00a0 mali bir krizin unsurlar\u0131 da geli\u015fti ve birikti. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 72 milyar 813 milyon TL olan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc durumlar i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131nda tutulan 40 milyar TL civar\u0131ndaki yedek ak\u00e7e, i\u015fsizlik fonu gibi fonlarda birikmi\u015f paralar da kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda 123 milyar 693 milyon TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda da artarak devam ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen bu a\u00e7\u0131k, para basarak ve bor\u00e7lanarak kapat\u0131l\u0131yor. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 s\u00fcrerken faiz giderleri; bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re, 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 35 artarak, 99 milyar 940 milyar liraya y\u00fckseldi. A\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lanlar, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 artt\u0131ran sonu\u00e7lara yola\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bat\u0131k kredilerin miktar\u0131 her y\u0131l bir \u00f6ncekine g\u00f6re art\u0131yor. Ekonomi istikrarl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girmedik\u00e7e aksine darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda bu art\u0131\u015f devam edecek. Hen\u00fcz banka iflaslar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde de\u011fil, ancak s\u00fcre\u00e7 b\u00f6yle devam ederse bunlar da g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 58.6 milyar dolar olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 40.8 milyar dolara, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 16.6 milyar dolara geriledi. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re artmas\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda, cari i\u015flemler dengesi fazla verdi. Ancak bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131ndan itibaren, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, tekrar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6nemli bir d\u00f6viz giri\u015f kayna\u011f\u0131 olan turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bu y\u0131l gerileyecek.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

440 milyar dolar civar\u0131ndaki d\u0131\u015f borcun 164.5 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131 kalan vadeye g\u00f6re k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 stoku olu\u015fturuyor. Bu dolara ve Euro gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimlerine olan talebi artt\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0 Mevduatlar i\u00e7inde dolar ve di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc paralar\u0131n oran\u0131 ve miktar\u0131 artmaya devam ediyor. Milyarlarca dolar piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131n TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 engellenmiyor ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri eriyor. E\u011fer yeni d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulunamazsa d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6denmesi ve ithalat\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinde aksamalar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale gelecek. T\u00fcrkiye swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131yla, belli ba\u015fl\u0131 emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkilerden de yararlanarak nefes almaya, g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir \u00fclke konumunda. Katar ve \u00c7in bir yana b\u0131rak\u0131lacak olursa belli ba\u015fl\u0131 \u00fclkelerden hi\u00e7biriyle yeni swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131 yap\u0131lamad\u0131.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Pandemi tek adam ve y\u00f6netiminin t\u00fcm iddialar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye kapitalizmi, egemen s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 ve y\u00f6netici kli\u011fi i\u00e7in at\u0131l\u0131m yapacaklar\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat de\u011fil, a\u00e7mazlar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftiren bir etken oldu ve s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e de olmaya da devam edecek. Yeni normale ge\u00e7i\u015fle birlikte ekonomide \u00f6nceki aylara g\u00f6re k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli canlanmalar olsa da bunlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda, \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan istikrarl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7i\u015fin ve krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olmayacak. Bu kriz devrimci bir durumun geli\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7acak kadar derinle\u015fmez ve derinle\u015fse bile i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ezilen ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131flar bu k\u00f6hne d\u00fczenin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve yeni bir toplumsal d\u00fczenin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiremezse; ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye kapitalizmi, bu krizden de \u00e7\u0131kar ve bir sonraki durgunluk ya da krize kadar devam edecek olan ge\u00e7ici bir canlanma, b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine girer. Sorun krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olana\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olup olmamas\u0131 de\u011fil, bunun k\u0131sa vadede olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve en \u00f6nemlisi de i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n en bilin\u00e7li, en kararl\u0131 ve en fedakar unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n ve onlar\u0131n devrimci \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcstlendi\u011fi tarihsel g\u00f6rev ve sorumluluklar\u0131n gere\u011fini ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yerine getirecekleridir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Ekonomik kriz ve onunla birle\u015fen salg\u0131n ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u015f\u00e7ilerin, k\u0131r ve \u015fehrin yar\u0131-proleter kitlelerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck m\u00fclk ve i\u015fletme sahiplerinin durumunu daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirdi. \u00d6zellikle \u015fehirlerdeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmelerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 kapan\u0131rken bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da kapanman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine geldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik artarken temel t\u00fcketim maddeleri fiyatlar\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin enflasyona ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyrediyor. Ba\u015fta i\u015f\u00e7iler olmak \u00fczere ezilen ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclen kitlelerin ya\u015fam ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131r, ho\u015fnutsuzluk, gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvensizlik kitleler aras\u0131nda derinli\u011fine ve yayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131na geli\u015firken, kendi \u00f6z deneyimleriyle \u00f6\u011frenme s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ilerliyor.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Saray y\u00f6netimi ve cumhur ittifak\u0131n\u0131n militarist-b\u00fcrokratik ayg\u0131t \u00fczerindeki hakimiyetinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7 ayn\u0131 zamanda onlar\u0131n, kitle desteklerinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, toplumsal dayanaklar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmenin ilerledi\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem y\u00f6netici kli\u011fin, krizin y\u00fcklerini halk\u0131n s\u0131rt\u0131na y\u0131kmak, \u00fclke y\u00f6netimini elinde tutmak, burjuva-liberal muhalefet de dahil her t\u00fcrl\u00fc muhalefet ve direni\u015fi sindirmek i\u00e7in sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r. Se\u00e7im ve siyasi partiler yasalar\u0131nda gerici anti-demokratik de\u011fi\u015fiklik haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131, barolara, mimar m\u00fchendis ve tabip odalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fimler, ana muhalefet partisi dahil her t\u00fcrl\u00fc muhalefete y\u00f6nelik tehdit ve bask\u0131lar, milletvekillerinin tutuklanmas\u0131 ve vekilliklerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, salg\u0131n g\u00fcnlerinde bile HDP\u2019li belediyelere y\u00f6nelik kayyum atamalar\u0131, artan soru\u015fturmalar, toplu s\u00f6zle\u015fme ve grevlerin ertelenmesi, toplant\u0131 ve g\u00f6steri yasaklar\u0131 vb. bunun \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6rnekleridir. Y\u00f6netici kli\u011fin iktidarda kalabilmek i\u00e7in de g\u00fcndeme getirece\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve d\u00fczenlemeler, parlamenter zeminde kalan bir m\u00fccadeleyle de\u011fil, bunu da yads\u0131mayan ancak, i\u015f\u00e7ilerin, t\u00fcm ezilen ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fclen toplumsal s\u0131n\u0131f ve gruplar\u0131n birle\u015fik, \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fc, kitlesel direni\u015fi ve m\u00fccadelesiyle p\u00fcsk\u00fcrt\u00fclebilir. Onlar\u0131n egemenlikleri, krizden krize s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen bu k\u00f6hne toplumsal d\u00fczenleri ancak b\u00f6yle bir m\u00fccadele temelinde y\u0131k\u0131labilir ve yerine krizlerin, bask\u0131n\u0131n ve s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni bir toplumsal d\u00fczen kurulabilir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

[1]<\/a> Ekonominin belli ba\u015fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerini etkisi alt\u0131na alan bir a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fcretim krizinin yans\u0131mas\u0131, ilk belirtileri olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131mayan, ancak genel bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeyen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 aksama ve t\u0131kanmalarla da beslenen ve ekonomik geli\u015fme \u00fczerinde de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkilerde bulunan para krizleri ve mali krizler de g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Sorun bunlar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelip gelmeyece\u011fi de\u011fil; ekonominin belli ba\u015fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerini kapsayan genel bir krizin, \u00f6zel olarak da son krizin nas\u0131l ve hangi temelde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131, belirleyici olan\u0131n ne oldu\u011fu.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[2]<\/sup><\/a> 2008-2009 krizi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve bu bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 20 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[3]<\/sup><\/a> ABD\u2019nin faizleri y\u00fckseltmesi, alt\u0131n dolar paritesinin dolar lehine y\u00fckselmesi, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Dolar-TL paritesini de etkilemi\u015fti. Dolar, alt\u0131n ve di\u011fer uluslararas\u0131 para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomideki t\u0131kanmalar, bunlar\u0131 a\u015fmak i\u00e7in piyasaya para pompalanmas\u0131 ve ekonomik paketler TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. 2016\u2019da 3.020 TL olan y\u0131ll\u0131k ortama dolar kuru, 2017\u2019de 3.648 TL\u2019ye, 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 40\u2019a yakla\u015fan bir art\u0131\u015fla 4.828\u2019e ve 2019\u2019da 5.674 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131na y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[4]<\/sup><\/a> Otomotivde son iki y\u0131lda toplam \u00fcretim, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f pazarlardan daha \u00e7ok darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in stoklarda bir gerileme oldu. Otomobil dahil t\u00fcm motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda stoklar, 2018\u2019de 12.891 ve 2019\u2019da ise 6.181 azald\u0131. Ancak, otomobil dahil yerli motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t ara\u00e7lar\u0131 toplam\u0131nda, var olan stoklara, 2015\u2019de 13.965, 2016\u2019de 17.996 ve 2017\u2019de 595 adet motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t arac\u0131 eklenmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle son 2 y\u0131ldaki azalmaya kar\u015f\u0131n stok birikimi, kriz \u00f6ncesinin, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fczeyinin alt\u0131na inmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[5]<\/sup><\/a> \u0130thal edilenler de dahil, toplam beyaz e\u015fya stok birikimi, 2018\u2019de 37.913 adet azal\u0131rken, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda tekrar 65.712 adet artt\u0131. Beyaz e\u015fyada stok birikimi kriz \u00f6ncesinin de \u00fcst\u00fcnde.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cemal Do\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye, kapitalist d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler kategorisinde yer alan, orta geli\u015fmi\u015flik d\u00fczeyinde, ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke. D\u00fcnya kapitalist ekonomisiyle entegrasyon ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkileri son otuz, \u00f6zellikle de AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri d\u00f6nemi olan son 18 y\u0131lda ivmelenerek yeni \u00f6zellikler kazand\u0131. Ulusal Kurtulu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcd\u00fck ulusal kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, yabanc\u0131 sermaye ve meta hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ve ulusal ekonomiyi koruyan \u00f6nlemlerin son k\u0131r\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 da bu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[513,379,295],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-44-sayi-temmuz-2020","category-iktisat","category-cemal-dogan"],"yoast_head":"\nG\u00fcncel ekonomik geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/teoriveeylem.net\/tr\/2020\/07\/04\/guncel-ekonomik-gelismeler-uzerine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"G\u00fcncel ekonomik geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cemal Do\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye, kapitalist d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler kategorisinde yer alan, orta geli\u015fmi\u015flik d\u00fczeyinde, ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke. D\u00fcnya kapitalist ekonomisiyle entegrasyon ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkileri son otuz, \u00f6zellikle de AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri d\u00f6nemi olan son 18 y\u0131lda ivmelenerek yeni \u00f6zellikler kazand\u0131. 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